NBA Basketball Betting: Most Profitable Pointspread Teams November 2019

With every team in the NBA having played 7 or 8 games we’re nearing the 10% completion point of the season.  This is a good time to start looking at which teams have made the most money for their ‘financial backers’ and which teams have cost bettors the most money.  As part of this review, we’ll also look at the teams that have played the most ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ games.  We’ll start with the ‘most profitable teams’.  Records and statistics are complete through November 7, 2019:

MOST PROFITABLE NBA BASKETBALL POINTSPREAD TEAMS

PHOENIX SUNS +7 UNITS

The Phoenix Suns are the only team remaining without a loss against the spread.  They’re 5-2 SU but a perfect 7-0 ATS at the time of this writing.  They’ve been the ‘perfect storm’ of basketball betting—a team that is improving much more quickly than expected.  What was expected was another bumbling, disastrous season.  Also helping the Suns is the power structure in the Western Conference this year—visiting teams are inevitably ‘looking ahead’ to games against big name rivals like the Lakers or Clippers or in ‘letdown mode’ after games against tough opponents like Utah or Denver.   The Suns have the #8 scoring offense in the NBA putting up 115 PPG.  The defense hasn’t been quite as good but in a strange way that works to the Suns’ advantage—they want to catch teams thinking that they can ‘play loose’ and win.  It’ll take a while for the ‘public’ to catch on to the improved Suns and they should remain a strong pointspread play for the immediate future.

MIAMI HEAT +3.9 UNITS

The Heat had slightly higher expectations than the Suns heading into the season with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler.  They’re 5-2 SU/5-1-1 ATS and that’s with their big free agent signing Jimmy Butler playing only 4 games to date.  Butler is recovering from a foot injury and (for now at least) being kept out of the second of back to back situations.  Miami is a higher profile team than Phoenix so the ‘public’ might start to bet them sooner than the Suns but they’re far from being one of the league’s ‘marquee teams’.  The Heat should remain a good bet and particularly in matchups against one of the public’s ‘darlings’ like the Bucks or Clippers.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS +2.8 UNITS

Charlotte opened the season on a 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS run but have now covered four straight going 3-1 straight up.  Much of their ATS success has been a simple function of being undervalued against overvalued opponents.  During their 4 game cover streak they lost by 15 at Staples Center against the Clippers but covered as +15.5 point underdogs.  They won outright by 7 at Sacramento as +7 underdogs, won outright by 6 at Golden State and barely covered as -5.5 favorites then won outright by 2 at home against Indiana as +2.5 dogs.  It’s too soon to say where the Hornets go from here but they should still be a decent play as an underdog, particularly against elite level teams.  The public has no interest in them and they’re priced accordingly yet they’re a better team than that.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2.8 UNITS

From a betting standpoint, the best thing to happen to the Lakers was getting beat by 10 as -3.5 favorites over the Clippers on opening night.  The Lakers haven’t lost since, winning and covering the next five games before they won their last game against Chicago by 6 but failing to cover as -6.5 favorites.  They’re a bounce or two away from being on a six game cover streak.  The public will catch on to the Lakers’ winning ways very quickly (if they haven’t already) but what they might be slow to grasp is how effectively they’re playing on the defensive end.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +2.8 UNITS

Another team that came into the year with monumentally low expectations.  They got off to a slow start losing 4 of their first 5 straight up though they were 3-2 ATS in those games.  They’ve since won two straight games at home against New Orleans as -2 favorites and Orlando as -2.5 favorites.  The public thinks that they’re absolute garbage which should keep them a solid value for the immediate future.  One of the best spots to bet them will be against mid level teams like the Magic and Pelicans.  Not sure how they’ll fare stepping up against the NBA’s elite.