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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets Free Pick, Betting Odds - August 2

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Aug/02/2020

The Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets game Sunday starts at 8:30 pm ET and features a line of Bucks -4.5 and a money line of -175.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (maximum $1000 bonus).


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TIME: 3:30 p.m. ET. TV: ABC

Action and Line Movement

It's a good technique to monitor moneyline movements compared to action.  85% of the spread action is on the Bucks, and this has made the number move from -3.5 (where it opened) to -5.  Overnight books were hanging at -4/-4.5 and by the morning, books were mostly sitting on the -4.5/-5.  The books are definitely responding to the action coming in.  We are not seeing a strong opinion where they believe Houston will cover.  BetOnline's jump from -165 to -195 on the moneyline speaks volumes that this particular book is discouraging action on Milwaukee to win outright at least.  There is a good chance this one lands on Milwaukee -3.  After all, Russell Westbrook had just joined the team when Milwaukee last faced Houston and won by 6 points.  He and James Harden combined for 80 points in their last game against the Mavericks. 

Pinnacle just before 3:30 pm ET moved the line up to -5.5.  All books had moved above -4.5 by 4 pm ET.

Hot Trends

  • Bucks are 5-1 Against The Spread in the last 6 meetings.

What Sagarin Says

Sagarin indicates a line of -3 Milwaukee, so there is definitely a bit of an overlay here.

Preview

That Westbrook-Harden combo is lethal, but is it enough to beat the Bucks.  As noted, Sagarin has Milwaukee rated three points better than the Rockets.

The Bucks (54-12) were not at full strength in their 119-112 win over the Boston Celtics on Friday.  Guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton continue to ramp up their conditioning following their late addition to the bubble near Orlando after testing positive for COVID-19.

Sagarin does not take into account this component. 

With this in mind, we see a better chance of Houston covering within 4 baskets. 

Take the Rockets +5.

TODAY'S FREE PICK: Rockets +5

TODAY'S RECORD: 1-0

OVERALL NBA RECORD 2020: 63-40-1 61.2%

OVERALL MLB RECORD 2020: 0-0

OVERALL MLS RECORD 2020: 1-0 100%

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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