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MLB Betting Picks – New York Mets at New York Yankees 2nd of Doubleheader

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Jun/11/2019

It’s going to be a long day of baseball in the Bronx with the cross town rivals playing two after Monday’s Subway Series opener was rained out.


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That’s a good thing for fans of the Mets and Yankees, who always get amped when their clubs go head-to-head. The nightcap and finale of the brief two-game set is scheduled for Tuesday night with the Mets’ Jason Vargas going against James Paxton. The Mets have hopes of making a run in the NL East as they are only 4.5 games out of first. However, getting back to .500 would be a good start.

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Date and Time: Tuesday, June 11, 2019, 7:05 p.m. ET

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY

Probable Pitchers: Jason Vargas vs. James Paxton

Opening MLB Odds: This one opened -175 at Bookmaker and has moved to -189

Mets at Yankees TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

With the talent they have at the top of their rotation, the Mets are still considered by many to be a threat in the NL East. They enter Tuesday’s action having won four of five to get within a game of .500, and the run started with a shutout from Game 2 starter Jason Vargas, who blanked the Giants. If the Mets are going to make a move up the standings, playing better on the road would be a nice start. They enter the Subway Series with just a 13-22 record away from Citi Field.

Things had gone so well for the Yankees they weren’t even missing a number of key players. That caught up with them recently with the club facing some adversity on the field for the first time. They dropped out of first place in the AL East by losing four of five games, ending the mini slide and avoiding a sweep by beating the Indians on Sunday. They’ll turn to one of their key acquisitions in lefty James Paxton, who’s making his third start since coming off the IL, where he was joined by just about every other projected starter.

Probable Pitchers

Nearly out of the rotation after watching his ERA balloon to 14.21, Jason Vargas ( 2-3, 3.57 ERA ) was given a vote of confidence and has responded with some of the best pitching of his career. He picked up his first win in over two months with a five-hit shutout of the Giants last time out. He allowed just five hits with eight strikeouts in his eighth career clean sheet.

Since allowing four earned and getting only one out against the Braves on Apr. 13, Vargas has been stellar with a 1.85 ERA in seven starts. He’s yielded one or no earned runs in six of those outings and he’s given up just three home runs across his last 39 innings. He threw a season-high 117 pitches last time, so that should be something to keep an eye on.

The Yankees are being cautious with James Paxton ( 3-2, 3.11 ERA ) as he makes his third start since returning from a knee issue. He no-hit San Diego over 4.0 innings with seven strikeouts in his first start since returning and surrendered three earned over 4.2 innings in his last start. The team isn’t concerned with his pitch count, rather it’s how Paxton deals with the pain. It wasn’t the pain that concerned him last time out. “I didn’t quite have the bite on my breaking stuff and wasn’t locating my fastball,” Paxton said after taking a ND in a loss to the Blue Jays.

Paxton has accumulated just 46.1 innings in his nine starts, but he has been effective. He’s fanned 63 and allowed just 36 hits with 1.17 WHIP and .213 OBA. In his only appearance against the Mets Paxton tossed 6.0 shutout innings with eight strikeouts back in 2017.

Key Stat

Vargas has been the Mets top starter over the last month and he could be catching the Yankees at a good time. The Bombers are fifth in MLB in scoring and they have a .255 team batting average with 102 homers. Those numbers, however, are lower against southpaws. We’re not comparing apples with apples since the Yanks have nearly four times the number of at-bats against righties, but the power decreases with only 14 homers in 479 ABs against lefties. And Vargas has given up just five long balls in 45.1 innings.

Bet Mets at Yankees at BookMaker.eu

You can throw out the records and stats when these clubs get together. This matchup is why interleague play was adopted in the first place and New Yorkers still love it when the clubs collide. The Yanks have been the better team for most of the years, but the series has been close. The teams split six games last year. Paxton is ready to let it rip after dealing with his ailment and I like him to get the best of the Mets in this matchup.

MLB Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Mets 2

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This article is courtesy of Bookmaker.eu

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