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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Free Pick, Odds, Preview August 16

Written by:
Ean Lamb
Published on:
Aug/16/2020

The Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros game betting odds and trends appear below.  Gambling911.com also has a free pick for this game. This one is part of our Betting Watch series, which studies potential edges, sometimes well in advance of games being played. Betting is available on this game at Americas Bookie, which is offering a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000).

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Game Odds

SEA

J. Sheffield (L) +215

HOU

L. McCullers Jr. (R) -260

Total 9.5

Action and Line Movement

The total is our focus for this one.  It hadn't moved overnight after opening at 9.5, and this is the number we will use for Sunday's free pick.

Hot Trends

  • While Saturday's game stayed Under 9.5 with only three total runs scored, four of the last five have gone Over that number with a fifth game concluding with nine runs.
  • A September 8, 2019 game resulted in 22 runs being scored.
  • The Mariners are currently ranked among the bottom worst bullpens in Major League Baseball.
  • The Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Preview

Lance McCullers Jr. followed up a disastrous performance with a solid seven inning no-hitter.  Prior to that one he endured two sloppy games (vs. the Diamondbacks and Angels).  Games he has started in have resulted in 9 or more runs so far this season. 

The oddsmakers are viewing Justus Sheffield as a complete disaster in this one (hence the +215 odds).  Sheffiled is coming off a dominating performance versus the Colorado Rockies, however, that game was played at home.  The oddsmakers do not have a whole lot of faith in Sheffield it seems.

The Over is 8-1-1 in the Mariners last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter even though they are only 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.

The Over is 9-2-1 in the Mariners last 12 road games.

The Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners last 16 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Over is 8-1 in the Astros last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.

The Over is 11-4-1 in Astros last 16 home games.

Head-to-head, the Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.

It is actually quite hard to find an Under trend edge in this series.

The Astros are 39-13 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.

The Astros are 44-15 in their last 59 games as a home favorite.

It's interesting to note that Saturday's game that ended in three runs scored featured a total of 10.  That's the highest total in this series in the last ten.  The average total has been set at 9 over the last ten games (7).  A game listed with a 9.5 total went Under as did the game with the lowest total of 8.5.

RECORD UPDATED AUGUST 16, 2020 5:12 pm ET

August 16, 2020 Picks: 1) Sevilla vs. Manchester United Both Teams to Score YES (W) 2) Mariners-Astros Over 9.5 (L)

OVERALL NBA RECORD 2020: 63-41-1 60.5%

OVERALL MLB RECORD 2020: 0-1

OVERALL MLS RECORD 2020: 3-0 100%

SOCCER RECORD 2020 (INCLUDES MLS): 13-4 76.5%

- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com

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