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March Madness Betting Strategies: 12 Seeds Beating a 5

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Mar/18/2019

The 12 seeds have a history of beating number 5 seed teams. No. 12 seeds are an impressive 25-18-1 against-the-spread since 2008.

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Of the four 12 seeds, Oregon looks like they have the best shot as a -1 point favorite versus a banged up Badgers squad.

A run of the popular CBS SportsLine advanced computer model, one of these 12 seeds will go quite deep.

The other  12-seeds are Liberty (+7.5 vs. Mississippi State), New Mexico State (+7.5 vs. Auburn) and Murray State (+4 vs. Marquette).  Auburn getting beaten by New Mexico State is a tough pill to swallow.

How good is the Sportsline model?

The model, which simulates every NCAA Tournament game 10,000 times, has nailed 12 of the 18 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds the last three years. It called several noteworthy upsets last year, including huge wins by No. 13 seed Buffalo over No. 4 seed Arizona, No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago over No. 6 seed Miami and No. 10 seed Butler over No. 7 seed Arkansas. Getting these upset picks right could make or break your entire March Madness bracket.

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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