MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 15

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Saturday June 15.  A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews

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Twins - This is your top consensus play.  80% of the backing is on the Twins.  They are a huge -250 favorite hosting the Chiefs.

Note that the total here has dropped from 10 to 8.5 at some books.  Most were sitting on the 9.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Glenn Sparkman (1-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (9-2, 1.92)

Sparkman will be making his fourth consecutive start and fifth overall this season after giving up three runs and eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. The 27-year-old Texan posted his first career victory in his initial start of 2019, scattering three hits over seven scoreless frames versus Tampa Bay on May 1, but returned to the bullpen for five appearances before rejoining the rotation. Sparkman has allowed six runs over seven innings while going 0-2 in four career relief outings against Minnesota.

After losing his first two decisions of the season, Odorizzi has won nine straight - including a triumph at Detroit on Sunday in which he permitted one run and five hits over six innings. The 29-year-old native of Illinois has recorded three consecutive scoreless outings twice since April 29 and has allowed a total of four runs over 47 2/3 frames in his last eight turns. Odorizzi owns a 2-4 record and 4.37 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance against Kansas City in his career.

Rays - 78% The price was coming in around -200.  71% of the total action was on the OVER. 

Astros - 78% The Astros were coming in at -222.

Phillies - 74% We won with Atlanta last night after the Braves trailed this entire game, came into the bottom of the 9th down two runs, only to score three and win.

Philadelphia had won the five previous games but the home team is 9-1 in this series. And best of all, Atlanta has won their last eight games overall.

The line has dropped on from -119 to -103.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) vs. Braves LH Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59)

Nola recovered from a sluggish April in which he posted a 5.68 ERA to excel in May, going 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and giving up 31 hits in 33 innings. The 26-year-old lost his first start of June, allowing six runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings June 3 at San Diego, but rebounded to hold Cincinnati to three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings Sunday. Nola, who owns a 6.75 ERA in five road starts, opened his season by beating the Braves on March 28 despite a career-high five walks, giving up one run on two hits with eight strikeouts.

Newcomb returns to the rotation to take over for the injured Kevin Gausman (right plantar fasciitis), and he may not be there long as newly signed Dallas Keuchel could join Atlanta next weekend at Washington. The 26-year-old Newcomb walked eight hitters while posting a 4.38 ERA in three starts before being demoted to the minors, but has been a revelation since returning as a reliever, walking only two with 21 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in 19 innings across 16 outings. Newcomb replaced Gausman on Monday against Pittsburgh and earned the win, allowing one hit with no walks and six strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings.

We won't dare as there are too many uncertainties in this one. 

Rockies - 73% - Colorado is 7-2 versus San Diego in their last nine, though the Padres did win yesterday.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres LH Eric Lauer (5-5, 4.14 ERA) vs. Rockies RH German Marquez (6-3, 4.19)

Lauer had his three-start winning streak halted when he gave up four runs - three earned - and seven hits over seven innings in a loss to Washington in his last turn. The 24-year-old is 2-2 with a 6.84 ERA in five road outings this season, including a dreadful turn at Coors Field on May 10 in which he gave up eight runs and eight hits in three frames of a 12-2 loss. Lauer is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA in three career starts against the Rockies while struggling against Trevor Story (2-for-4, two homers, six RBIs) and Blackmon (3-for-7).

Marquez surrendered four runs and five hits - three homers - over six innings in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs in his last start. The 24-year-old also was pummeled by the Cubs in his previous turn - yielding eight runs in 5 1/3 frames of a setback - and has allowed at least four runs in six of his last nine outings. Marquez defeated the Padres on May 10, when he gave up two runs and 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings, and is 3-2 with a 4.32 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) versus the club.

Four of the last five in Colorado have gone OVER the current total of 11.  The Rockies have gone from -153 to -170. 

Orioles - 71%

Brewers vs. Giants (FREE PICK) - Six of the last ten in this series have gone UNDER the current total of 7.5 with that number dropping from 8 despite 65% or greater of the action on the OVER.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 12.00 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.83)

Nelson made his first start in 21 months on Wednesday and allowed five runs - four earned - over three innings in an 8-1 loss to Miami. "He's disappointed with how it went, but you have to keep getting back up," Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell told reporters. "He's fought this fight for a long time now. He has to keep getting up, keep getting better, and he'll do that." The 30-year-old missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 2017.

Bumgarner was a hard-luck loser on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers after allowing one run and four hits in seven innings. The four-time All-Star will be a free agent at the end of the season and could be one of several veterans dealt by the Giants before the July 31 trade deadline. Yasmani Grandal is 2-for-16 with seven strikeouts against Bumgarner, who is 7-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career starts versus Milwaukee - including an 0-2 record and 4.50 mark in two outings last season.

Milwaukee scored three runs against San Francisco on Friday.  We can see Bumgarner bouncing back and lasting into the 6th.  San Francisco has one of the better bullpens in Major League Baseball.

Likewise, Nelson could pitch much better here. The Brewers, after all, are 5-1 in Nelson’s last 6 starts.

The UNDER is 13-2-1 in the Brewers last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter and and 4-0 in Nelson’s last 4 road starts.

The UNDER is 14-6-2 in Bumgarner’s last 22 home starts.

We will be on the UNDER 7.5 here

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com

Our Free Picks Record June 15

2019 MLB Record: 17-9-2 (65.4%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

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