MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 11

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:

Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Tuesday June 11.  A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews

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Dodgers - The Dodgers and Angels had split wins and losses over their last ten meetings heading into Monday night.  While the Dodgers are among the top teams in Major League Baseball right now, the Angels are hovering around the .500 mark.

We feared the relatively low tempting price on the Dodgers and liked the OVER but held back due to the powerful UNDER trending of late with the last nine meetings.  The Angels did win and this one stayed UNDER the total of 9 (8 runs scored).

The line on Tuesday night's game has trended from -160 to -155. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (7-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. Angels RH Felix Pena (3-1, 4.53)

After winning each of his previous four starts, Maeda settled for a no-decision in Arizona on Wednesday after allowing one run and two hits over five innings. The 31-year-old native of Japan has given up six runs and 14 hits over 28 2/3 frames in his last five turns, registering 35 strikeouts while issuing only three walks. Maeda has made three starts and one relief appearance against the Angels in his career, going 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA while fanning 21 batters in 17 innings.

Pena has followed an opener in seven of his last eight appearances after making four traditional starts to begin the season and is expected to do so again Tuesday. The 29-year-old Dominican worked only 1 2/3 innings against Oakland on Wednesday but escaped with a no-decision after surrendering seven runs on eight hits and two walks. Pena has permitted three runs on seven hits and seven walks with 18 strikeouts over 12 1/3 frames in four career games (two starts) versus the Dodgers.

This series is not appealing for us with the Angels seemingly having the Dodgers number.

Yankees (Game 2) - 75% of the action was on the Yankees in this Game 2 starting at 7:05 pm.  This one has moved from -175 to -195.   Only four of the last ten meetings have resulted in more than 9 runs scored.  Game 1 starts shortly after 1 pm ET.

Phillies - We enjoyed a sweet underdog victory with our play on Arizona last night.  The Diamondbacks have dominated the Phillies of late, winning eight of the last ten and are 9-1 in Philadelphia.

Jon Duplantier was expected to start for the Diamondbacks.  In two starts he has two no decisions. He is 1-0, 3.27 on the season. 

Making his first major league start two weeks ago, Jon Duplantier gave up three runs over five innings, all three scored in the second inning. He followed last Wednesday by giving up three hits and two runs over five innings of work.  He also had seven strikeouts and a single walk over 71 pitches.  Overall, his performance Wednesday was solid despite the no decision.

Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29) is slated to start for Philly.  He gave up seven hits and five runs in just 4 2/3 innings in Wednesday’s no-decision against the Padres. Prior to that poor showing, Arrieta surrendered five runs and 10 hits in five innings versus the Dodgers.  He had a solid performance prior to that one with a win against Milwaukee.

We would be careful going against Arrieta Tuesday.  The only time the Phillies have scored more than three runs and lost with Arrieta starting is when the bullpen gave up seven runs to the Nationals on May 4.  Philadelphia has the 12th best bullpen.

70% of the total action was on the OVER.  This one has occasionally wobbled to 9.5 but has stayed primarily on the 9. 

Six of the last ten have stayed UNDER the current total.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the Phillies last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Arrieta’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 8-3 in his last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game and  7-2-1 in his last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Philadelphia has scored 5 or more runs in just three of their last ten, one of those last night in a free-for-all.  

Arizona has allowed 5 or more runs in two of their last eight.  While they have scored 6 or more in their last four, three of those were against Toronto.  Three previous games against the more solid Dodgers resulted in no more than 1,0 and 3 runs scored, respectively.

Both teams do have top 15 bullpens.

We are going to take the UNDER 9 here (some of you might be able to grab the UNDER 9.5 if it hits there once again or you already got this number earlier).

Astros - They were seeing better than 70% of the moneyline action in this interleague game against Milwaukee.

Cardinals - You can get St. Louis at -149 in Miami.  The line has moved no more than ten points. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Dakota Hudson (4-3, 3.70 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Elieser Hernandez (0-0, 9.00)

Hudson recorded his fifth consecutive quality start and gave up three runs or fewer a ninth straight time in a no-decision against Cincinnati on Thursday, permitting one run on five hits and four walks over 6 1/3 innings. The Mississippi State product has issued 31 walks in 65 2/3 frames, but he has been able to overcome that in part by ranking second in the National League with 104 ground-ball outs. Hudson will try to extend his unbeaten streak to six games when he faces Miami for the first time in his career.

Hernandez is expected to make his first start of the season and the seventh of his brief career in place of an injured Caleb Smith. The 24-year-old Hernandez gave up two runs over as many innings in a relief appearance against San Francisco on May 28 after going 0-5 with a 5.04 ERA in six starts as a rookie last year. Hernandez has been sharp through nine turns at Triple-A New Orleans this season, however, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA while posting a 69:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Lopsided action on the OVER here.  The last five meetings have resulted in 8 or fewer runs (four under that number).  Seven of the last ten meetings have resulted in eight or fewer runs. This one is trending down from 8.5 to 8, perhaps a move to get even more money on the OVER.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 overall and 4-0 in Hudson’s last 4 starts overall.

Hernandez will keep us from pulling the trigger on the UNDER here.

Padres - The Padres were seeing better than 70% of the money line action early. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) vs. Giants RH Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15)

Paddack was 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA after his first nine career starts before getting roughed up in his last two outings. The 23-year-old Texan allowed 10 runs (nine earned) and 14 hits - including five of his nine career homers yielded - over a combined 9 1/3 innings in losses to Philadelphia 9-6 on Tuesday and at Yankee Stadium 7-0 on May 29. Paddack permitted one run, two hits and a walk while striking out seven in five frames of a 3-1 victory versus San Francisco on March 31 in his major league debut.

Beede allowed six runs (five earned), five hits (two homers) and four walks with five strikeouts in five innings of a 7-0 loss to the Mets in New York on Wednesday. The 26-year-old Massachusetts native has yielded 24 hits and 15 walks in 17 2/3 innings over five games (three starts) this season, resulting in a 2.21 WHIP and .320 batting average against. Beede is 0-3 with an 8.17 ERA, 2.21 WHIP and .311 BA against in seven career appearances (five starts).

We did like the Padres, as noted with our overnight advance preview, but the price was over our -160 price threshold. 

It's now dropped to -150, and that scares us.

We were also observing the total, and more specifically, the UNDER.  A few books opened at 7.5 but the number had stayed steady at 8 overnight and into the morning hours.

San Diego has been able to score of late.  They have had five or more runs in six of their last ten.  The Padres allowed nine runs in three of their last ten (two against Miami and another against the Phillies).

Paddick is due for a good outing here and the Giants have scored no more than three in their last five overall.  San Francisco's scoring over their last ten mostly came in Baltimore (the team with the worst bullpen), 6,8 and 8 runs, respectively.

Mariners vs. Twins - The brunt of tonight's action on this game was on the OVER.  The total is trending down from 10 to 9.5.  Six of the last ten meetings have indeed gone UNDER that number.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners RH Mike Leake (5-6, 4.30 ERA) vs. Twins LH Martin Perez (7-2, 3.72)

Leake is coming off his best outing of the season after scattering one run and six hits in a complete-game victory over the Houston Astros at home on Wednesday. The Arizona State product struck out five and walked a pair in earning his second consecutive win and managed to keep the ball out of the air by inducing 17 ground balls. Leake won both of his starts against Minnesota in 2018, allowing a total of three runs and seven hits in 13 innings without yielding a home run.

Leake allowed two runs on five hits through seven innings and earned a win over the Angels prior to this outing but surrendered five runs over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Athletics prior to this and allowed seven runs over five innings in a loss to the Rangers before that outing.  This leads us to believe Leake is due for a rocky on Tuesday night.

Perez induced a season-high 12 ground balls against Cleveland on Wednesday but was still knocked around for five runs - two earned - on six hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings. The Venezuela native did not factor in the decision in that contest and is winless in his last two outings while totaling 11 runs allowed - eight earned - in 7 1/3 innings. Perez was much better in a start at Seattle on May 17, when he held the Mariners to one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings while striking out seven to earn the win.

Rangers vs. Red Sox - Lopsided (85%) action on the OVER.  The total is trending from 10 to 10.5. 

Four of the last ten meetings have gone OVER 10.5, another hit 10 runs. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers RH Ariel Jurado (3-2, 2.78 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Darwinzon Hernandez (0-0, 0.00)

Jurado has posted three straight quality starts after primarily working out of the bullpen to begin the season. He is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA during the solid three-game stretch, defeating Baltimore with six innings of three-run ball on Thursday. The 23-year-old from Panama will be facing the Red Sox for the first time.

Hernandez will be summoned from Double-A Portland for the second time this season. He appeared in just one game out of the bullpen in his first stint in the majors, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless frames against Detroit on April 23. The 22-year-old from Venezuela is 1-4 with a 5.13 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) for the Sea Dogs this year.

Jurado is probably due for a sub par outing while Hernandez is essentially an unknown here.

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com

Our Free Picks Record June 11

2019 MLB Record: 16-8-2 (66.7%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

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