MLB Betting Previews April 16

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:

Today we look at some hot games in the MLB following yesterday's nice win on the 76ers to boost our NBA record a bit. 


Sides and totals seeing the most betting action included the Cubs (up to 75%), Cubs/Marlins OVER (65%), Nationals (65% to 75%), Rays (65% to 70%), Braves (60% to 70%), Dodgers (60%), Mets/Phillies OVER (65%), Angels/Rangers UNDER (65%), Astros/Athletics OVER (60%) and Indians/Mariners OVER (60%).

Angels vs. Rangers

What We Like:

  • Angels UNDER now 12-4 after last night's big OVER
  • The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams
  • Books appear to be wanting more action on the OVER with most bets on the UNDER by taking number down a half run from 10.5 to 10
  • LA is 8-2 in the last ten meetings

What We Don't Like:

  • Public backing the UNDER
  • The home team is 9-1 in the last ten meetings

The line on this game has dropped from Rangers -130 to -119.

The Los Angeles Angels welcomed franchise player Mike Trout back to the lineup for the series opener, but his return wasn't enough to propel them to victory.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Jaime Barria (1-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Mike Minor (1-1, 3.86)

Barria gets the call a day after being summoned from the minors for the second time in less than a week. The 22-year-old Panamanian was promoted on Wednesday and picked up a victory after allowing one run and four hits over 2 2/3 innings against Milwaukee but was returned to Triple-A the following day. Barria made five starts versus the Rangers as a rookie last season and fared well, going 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA.

Minor has bounced back nicely from a rough season debut, allowing two runs and 10 hits over 14 innings in his last two starts. Both of the runs and half of the hits were yielded in Arizona last Tuesday, when the 31-year-old Tennessean settled for a no-decision after working seven frames. Minor has yet to lose to the Angels in his career as he is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances.

Mets vs. Phillies

What We Like:

  • Half of the last ten head-to-heads have resulted in ten or more runs
  • Steven Matz due for a bad outing having recorded three straight strong starts
  • The OVER is now 11-3-1 in Mets games
  • Mets bullpen is not among the most reliable yet
  • The OVER is 8-1-1 in Mets last 10 road games
  • The OVER is 10-2-1 in Mets last 13 vs. National League East
  • The OVER is 5-1 in the Phillies last 6 overall

What We Don't Like:

  • Public going heavy on the OVER
  • The Phillies allowed 15 runs in Pivetta's last start so can't see such a bad outing this time

The line on this game is Mets +105, Phillies -105. 

The total has mostly sat at 9.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets LH Steven Matz (1-0, 1.65 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Nick Pivetta (1-1, 9.45)

Matz recorded his third straight strong start on Thursday and picked up his first decision after allowing two runs on four hits over six innings in a 6-3 win at Atlanta. The 27-year-old struck out eight for the second straight outing and walked just one after issuing four free passes in his previous contest. Matz, who owns an 0-2 mark with a 3.57 ERA in five career starts versus Philadelphia, has kept Hopkins (1-for-10) in check - although Scott Kingery (3-for-7, homer) gave him some trouble last season.

Pivetta struggled in his third straight start on Wednesday, permitting seven runs on as many hits while issuing three walks across 3 2/3 innings of a 15-1 shellacking by Washington. "He's got a tremendous amount of ability. We trust that that ability is going to show up. I believe strongly that he's going to be OK," Philadelphia manager Gabe Kapler said of the 26-year-old British Columbia native. Pivetta is 2-2 with a 6.39 ERA in five career starts versus New York and has allowed the current crop of Mets to hit .326 against him, although Nimmo is 0-for-6.

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

What We Like:

  • Houston has one of the best UNDER records at 11-4 (yesterday's went OVER)
  • Six of the last ten games between these two teams have resulted in nine or fewer runs
  • Houston has won six of the last seven meetings
  • Houston is 8-1 in Collin McHugh's last 9 starts vs. OAK
  • Marco Estrada coming off bad start following two good ones and he is yet to have a win

What We Don't Like:

  • McHugh allowed six in his last start and may be due for a loss
  • Total moving up from 8.5 to 9

The total was coming in at 8.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Collin McHugh (2-1, 2.65 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Marco Estrada (0-1, 4.87)

McHugh surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his first three starts and owns 22 strikeouts in 17 total innings after fanning nine across six frames against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. The 31-year-old yielded his first homer of the season against the Yankees but limited the damage to two runs and four hits. McHugh was even better against Oakland on April 5, scattering one run and three hits over six innings to pick up the win.

Estrada tossed six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels on March 29 and was solid against Boston five days later before struggling against Baltimore on April 8. The Long Beach State product was ripped for six runs on nine hits - two homers - in four innings to suffer the loss against the Orioles. Estrada made two starts against Houston as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays last season and went 0-1 while allowing a total of seven earned runs and 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings.

Indians vs. Mariners

What We Like:

  • The OVER is 13-5-1 in Seattle games
  • The last seven meetings have gone OVER the current total of 8
  • Seattle has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams
  • Mike Leake coming off a no-decision his last start
  • Over is 4-0 in Leakes last 4 starts overall
  • Mariners have allowed five or more runs in six of their last ten games overall while scoring six or more in their last seve

What We Don't Like:

  • The line on this one is Cleveland -106 and has shot up to -125 some books suggesting an effort to get more action on the Mariners, who were seeing around 65% of the action.
  • Outside of the KC series, which we still believe was an outlier, the Indians have allowed no more than four runs in eight of their last ten games
  • Indians do have one of the better bullpens

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Shane Bieber (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Mike Leake (2-0, 4.15)

Bieber stood out in his last outing as he gave up just three hits in seven scoreless innings while defeating Detroit. The 23-year-old has given up just two runs and five hits while striking out 15 over 13 frames in his two starts. Bieber is 8-0 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 career road appearances (12 starts).

Leake served up three homers in a no-decision against Kansas City in his last outing and has allowed five blasts in his last two starts. The 31-year-old won both of his first two starts of the season, giving up two runs each time. Leake is 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA in nine career turns against the Indians and has struggled with Hanley Ramirez (6-for-12, one homer, six RBIs).

Mariners are 14-2 in Leake's last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

2019 MLB Record: 5-2 (71%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-4 (63.4%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

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