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MLB Betting Picks Monday, July 26 – Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Jul/26/2021

Following three consecutive National League East Division championships and an impressive 2020 run that took them to the seventh game of the National League Championship Series, the Atlanta Braves were an understandable favorite to do it all again in 2021.  Except that is not what has happened.  Atlanta is fighting to get to the .500 mark, let alone for their playoff lives.  A combination of injuries, off-field issues, a terrible bullpen, and perhaps the law of averages is ruining their season and busting countless bankrolls.

Stepping into the NL East void left by the Braves are the New York Mets.  New York boasts one of the best starting pitching staffs in the game.  The question is if the Mets can get enough timely hitting to sustain their run as best in the division.  The Braves visit the Mets Monday Night.  

The National League East matchup will air live on MLB Network at 5:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field.  Betting options for every game on the MLB schedule are available at BookMaker.eu.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Date and Time:  Monday, July 26, 2021, 5:05 p.m. ET
Location:  Citi Field, Flushing Meadows, New York
Probable Pitchers:  Kyle Muller vs. Marcus Stroman
Opening MLB Odds:  Mets -161, Total 6.5
Braves vs. Mets TV Coverage:  MLB Network

Odds Analysis

The betting public continues to try and adjust to the new reality of the Braves.  Atlanta is one of the most expensive yet inconsistent teams on the board.  The Braves bring a record of 48-50 straight up, 42-55 vs. the run line, and 48-44-4 over the total.  On the road, Atlanta is 22-25 straight up, 24-22 vs. the run line, and 19-25-1 under the total.  

MLB metrics show the Braves 10th for run production and 15th for earned run average.  The Braves rank 8th for quality starts but an abysmal 21st for bullpen ERA. Atlanta's relief staff has blown a staggering 15 saves this year, more than enough for their playoff margin deficit.

The loss of Ronald Acuna for the rest of the season is devastating to the Braves' playoff prospects.  Acuna was hitting .283 with 24 home runs and a .990 OPS at the time he went out.

The Mets have come away with the cash in five of their last seven games.  Four of their previous five games went under the total, which is true to form for their success.  New York relies on just enough run production to support their strong pitching.  

The Mets lead the NL East with a record of 52-44 straight up, 44-50 on the run line, and 41-47-3 under the total.  At Citi Field, the Mets are 30-15 straight up, 20-23 vs. the run line, and 13-27-1 under the total.  

MLB metrics show New York 27th for run production and 5th for earned run average.

Pete Alonso, the 2019 NL Home Run King, is powering the Mets lineup.  Alonso has a team-best 22 home runs on the season with a .858 OPS and .516 slugging percentage.  

Probable Pitchers

The Braves are expected to start left-hander Kyle Muller.  So far in 2021, Muller is 1-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.119 WHIP.  The Mets have dropped four of his previous five starts.  

After searching for a reliable closer for most of the season's first half, the Braves may have found one in Will Smith.  Smith is 3-5 with a 3.49 earned run average and 1.086 WHIP.  Atlanta has won six of Smith's last seven appearances.  Smith has allowed only two earned runs in his previous seven innings.  

Right-hander Marcus Stroman is the probable Mets starter.  Stroman is 7-8 with a 2.58 earned run average and WHIP of 1.078.  The Mets have dropped five of Stroman's previous seven starts.  

Of great concern is the inconsistency of Mets closer Edwin Diaz.  So far, Diaz is 3-4 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.210 WHIP.  Diaz has 21 saves in 25 opportunities.  On the positive, Diaz has allowed only one run in his last three appearances with two saves.  

Bet Braves at Mets at BookMaker.eu

In this situation, the Mets have more going for them.  Additionally, New York will get a rare home team discount because of the Braves' popularity with the masses.  

MLB Score Prediction:  Mets 4, Braves 3

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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