MLB Betting Picks July 5, 2021 – Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Just last week the Chicago White Sox completed a homestand with a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins. The teams hook up again Monday in the opener of a three-game set from Target Field with the Sox looking to continue their dominance over their AL Central rival. Part of the reason for their six-game lead is their play within the division. The Sox are 28-14 against fellow AL Central members and they are 8-1 against the Twins. The Sox enter having lost two in row while the Twins stopped their five-game losing streak by beating Kansas City on Sunday.

The AL Central matchup will air live on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET from Target Field. Betting options for every game on the 2021 MLB schedule are available at

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Date and Time: Monday, July 5, 2021, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Probable Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Bailey Ober
Opening MLB Odds: Minnesota -101, Chicago -119, O/U 9.5
White Sox at Twins TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

It’s been a struggle for the Twins and unless something miraculous happens over the second half their two-year run as division champ will end. Most pundits had Minnesota and the Sox battling for the division crown, and those who did are half right. The Sox showed promise the last few seasons with their rebuild and things are lining up for them. It’s been a different story for the Twins, who fell into last place in the division behind the Tigers and Royals, thanks to a five-game losing streak that started with a loss to the Sox.

Pitching has been a huge concern this year with the Twins owning one of the league’s worst staff ERA’s. Collectively the group allows over five runs per game and has been situated in the bottom of the stat categories since the start of the year. They got a splendid outing from Kenta Maeda on Sunday to beat the Royals, avoiding a sweep. Oddsmakers have countered Minnesota’s ability to score runs by jacking up the total. They played the previous series with the total at 10 in each game with the UNDER going 2-1. With their high expectations and poor results, the Twins are one of the least profitable teams down 1966 units on the moneyline.

Heading into the first week of July the White Sox find themselves comfortably ahead of the division pack. Division titles and pennants aren’t won in July but they can be lost. The Sox have had a wonderful season series with the Twins going 8-1 outscoring Minnesota 76-37 in the process. They scored at least seven runs in all three games last week cashing the OVER every time. We’ll also get a pitching rematch with seven-game winner Dylan Cease on the bump. Cease allowed two run in Chicago’s 13-3 win last week.

Probable Pitchers

Many consider Cease (7-3, 3.75 ERA) the No. 5 starter in a rotation that’s been very good this season. He has the second-highest win total on the club and the Sox won 10 of his last 13 starts. He had a solid outing against the Twins last week giving up two solo homers among three hits over 6.0 innings. He also fanned seven in that game while walking three. Cease has been the beneficiary of some offensive outbursts to help his record. Twice in his last four starts the Sox scored in double figures.

While his last time out was a good showing, Cease has had trouble with the Twins in the past. He’s made five career starts against them sporting a 7.54 ERA with a 1-2 record. One third of the home runs he’s allowed this season have been to the Twins. He also surrendered a big fly in his first start but got the win yielding three earned on five hits in 5.0 frames.

At 6-foot-9 Ober (0-1, 5.84 ERA) is better known for his size than his pitching. He’ll be making just his seventh major league start on Monday with this being his third against the Sox. He was saddled with the loss last Wednesday allowing five runs on four hits in 3.1 innings. The bad news is that three of those hits were homers and Ober has surrendered five home runs in 7.1 innings over his two starts against the Sox.

Against teams other than the Sox Ober has been decent pitching to a 3.63 ERA. He flashed some brilliance three starts ago allowing just one hit over four shutout innings against the Mariners.

Bet White Sox at Twins at

You would think the odds are against the White Sox after winning eight of the first nine meetings between the clubs. But let’s face it, this isn’t the Twins teams most expected at the start of the season. And it’s not like they had a rough stretch, they’ve been bad all season. Their pitching stinks and I like the Sox to keep teeing off on Ober before the assault continues on the bullpen.

MLB Score Prediction: White Sox 8, Twins 4

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- Phil Simon,

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