MLB Betting Picks July 4 – Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

One day after suffering just their second shutout loss of the season, the Atlanta Braves offense returned to being the destructive force it’s been over a stretch that’s seen them win 18 of 25 games to take a firm lead in the NL East.

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The Braves evened the series with division rival Philadelphia Phillies with a 9-2 victory on Wednesday and go for the series win Thursday with All-Star Mike Soroka taking the hill. The Phils will try and cut into their 5.5-game deficit by sending Zach Eflin to the bump. The Holiday showcase can be seen on ESPN with betting options available at BookMaker.eu.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Date and Time: Thursday, July 4, 2019, 7:20 p.m. ET

Location: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA

Probable Pitchers: Zach Eflin vs. Mike Soroka

Opening MLB Odds: Atlanta -180, Philadelphia +155, O/U 10

Phillies at Braves TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

While their sights are set on catching the Braves atop the division, the Phillies better watch out behind them. That’s because the Nationals are making a move up the standings. Since May 30 the Phillies are just 12-19 and have fallen further behind in the division. Included in that stretch of games was a series in Atlanta in the middle of June where Philly dropped two of three. Tragically, the Phils missed out on a chance to possibly gain some ground by dropping five of six games to the last-place Miami Marlins over the past two weeks.

The Braves are playing well enough to build a 5.5-game lead in the NL East, but they have to wonder if the offense can continue its torrid pace. Over their past 49 games the Braves are 33-16 behind a group that’s scored nearly six runs with 9.4 hits per game with 86 home runs. They may not need that kind of production with Soroka on the mound, but they’ll likely give it to him anyway. The Braves are unbeaten in his last six starts scoring a total of 47 runs.


Probable Pitchers

The Phillies need Zach Eflin ( 7-7, 3.34 ERA ) to regain the form he had over his first eight starts. He was 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA after tossing a four-hit shutout at Kansas City on May 11. Since then the Phils have lost six of his eight starts and Eflin’s ERA over that span is 4.30. He allowed eight hits and three runs to Miami in his last outing getting a quality start by going 6.0 innings. However, the Phils lost the game 9-6.

Eflin pitches to contact and opponents have made plenty of it over his last three starts. He yielded 24 hits and 11 earned runs across 17 innings with four balls leaving the yard. We’ve seen the Braves crush it recently and Eflin will have to hit his spots to avoid hard contact. It’s been a struggle for him to do that over his past few outings.

Making his first start since being named an All-Star, Mike Soroka ( 9-1, 2.13 ERA ) has been a find for the Braves. That he’s having success shouldn’t be a surprise since he had a solid five-game run last season. The amount of success on the other hand is quite unexpected. He hasn’t lost since his first start of the year back on April 18, but his numbers have gone up since June 1, a sign that he could be tiring.

Over the first two months of the season Soroka allowed just 30 hits over 50.2 innings and sported a 1.07 ERA. Over his last six outings he’s given up 34 hits in 34 innings with a 3.71 ERA. His mates have helped out with plenty of runs during those games and despite the numbers the Braves are unbeaten in his last six starts.

Key Stats

Since being swept in the opening series of the season, the Braves have won three of five from their division rival, with all those games in Atlanta’s yard. And they did it by outscoring Philly 38-19. The offense took a day off in Tuesday’s opener with Aaron Nola and Hector Neris combining on a four-hit shutout. Even with that blanking the Braves are averaging 7.6 runs in those five outings scoring nine or more runs three times.

Bet Phillies at Braves at BookMaker.eu

Eflin has been the stabilizing force in a rotation that’s been shaky. And he’s shown cracks over his last few starts. He has good career numbers against the Braves, but he hasn’t faced them since 2017. That means he hasn’t faced Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley. Atlanta’s hitters will figure Eflin out as the game progresses and I expect them to win this game behind Soroka, who’s been a stud.

MLB Score Prediction: Braves 7, Phillies 3

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor (Picks Courtesy of Bookmaker.eu)

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