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MLB Betting Picks Friday, July 30 – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Jul/29/2021

At the onset of the season, the Cubs shocked fans, gamblers, and the baseball community with a strong start that had them on top of the National League Central just a couple of weeks shy of the All-Star break.  But as the wins and profits piled up, a more sober look at Chicago revealed cracks.  It was only a matter of time before the roof caved in for Wise Guys and baseball curmudgeons.  And that is exactly what happened.  Chicago lacks the depth to make a run at the playoffs over the long haul.  Their offseason fire sale that was called an unconditional surrender was prescient.  The Washington Nationals are also lacking as a serious playoff contender.  As time goes on, the Nats are being exposed as an accidental 2019 World Series champion.  The Nats will host the Cubs on Friday night.  Live Odds Can Be Found Here

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Date and Time:  Friday, July 30, 2021, 7:10 p.m. ET
Location:  Nationals Park, Washington, SC
Probable Pitchers:  Trevor Williams (Cubs) vs. Jon Lester (Nationals)
Opening MLB Odds:  Check Back Later
Cubs vs. Nationals TV Coverage:  MLB Network

Odds Analysis

Overall, the Cubs might show a slight edge in betting value for this game at Washington.  Although the Cubs are the more popular team, nobody is high on them at present.  Squares are terrified to take road teams under any circumstances, especially when they have losing records.  By contrast, the Nationals have absolutely zero appeal with anyone.  Thus, we’ll get an honest line.  

The Cubs have been underwater lately with four losses in their last seven games.  Only two of their previous six games cleared the total.  Chicago stands at 50-53 straight up, 56-47 vs. the run line, and 42-55-6 under the number.  On the road, the Cubs are 19-33 straight up, 30-22 vs. the run line, and 19-30-3 under the total.  

MLB metrics show the Cubs 20th for run production and 15th for earned run average.  One positive is that the Cubs rank 6th for bullpen ERA.  

Cubs shortstop Javier Baez has a team-high 22 home runs and 65 runs batted in.  Third baseman Kris Bryant leads the Cubs with 58 runs to go with 19 doubles, 18 home runs, and 51 runs batted in with an OPS of .861.  

Washington is in free fall with five losses in their most recent six games.  Only one of their most recent seven games cleared the total.  Washington is 46-54 straight up, 45-55 vs. the run line, and 36-60-4 under the number.  At Nationals Park, Washington is 27-25 straight up, 23-29 vs. the run line, and 17-34-1 under the total.  

Washington has MLB metrics of 17th for run production and 17th for earned run average.  The Nationals rank 21st for bullpen ERA.  

Nats Left fielder Kyle Schwarber has a team-high 25 home runs but remains out with a hamstring injury.  

Probable Pitchers

Right-hander Trevor Williams is the probable starter for the Cubs.  Williams will take the hill with a record of 4-2, a 5.06 earned run average, and a WHIP Of 1.534.  Chicago has won four of Williams’ last five appearances.  

Closer Craig Kimbrell is 2-3 with a 0.49 earned run average and WHIP of 0.709.  Kimbrell has 23 saves in 25 opportunities. The Cubs got the cash in his most recent seven appearances.  

Left-hander Jon Lester is the probable starter for the Nationals.  Lester is 3-5 with a 5.02 earned run average and 1.593 WHIP.  Washington has dropped four of his most recent six starts.  

Closer Brad Hand was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on July 29 after saving 21 games with a 5-5 record.  Kyle Finnegan is the projected closer in place of Hand.  Finnegan is 3-2 with a 3.38 earned run average and WHIP of 1.500.  He has no saves this season, nor has he had a save opportunity.  

Bet Cubs at Nationals at Bookmaker.eu

The Cubs have come away with the cash in six of their last 11 games against the Nationals.  Only two of the previous six games in this series at Washington cleared the total.  The Cubs have won three of their most recent four games at Nationals Park.  

MLB Score Prediction:  Cubs 5, Nationals 3

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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