MLB Betting Picks – Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Chicago Cubs will be happy that they don’t have to face the Houston Astros again during the regular season. The Cubs dropped their second straight in the series and third in a row overall with Tuesday’s 9-6 setback.

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And they didn’t even get Houston’s A team. With several starters out of the lineup, the Stros racked Jon Lester as Chicago’s starting pitching continues to falter.

The north siders will turn to Kyle Hendricks to try and stop the bleeding. He’ll be opposed by lefty Wade Miley, who is undefeated in five home starts. The finale of the three-game set will be televised live on ESPN.

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Date and Time: Wednesday, May 29, 2019, 8:10 p.m. ET

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Probable Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks vs. Wade Miley

Opening MLB Odds: Astros -131, Cubs +111, O/U 9

Cubs at Astros TV Coverage: ESPN


Odds Analysis

The Cubs smashed five homers on Tuesday, including a pair from David Bote, but that still wasn’t enough to overcome another shaky performance from their starter. The Cubs have hit 21 home runs in the last seven games, but in the same stretch their starters have compiled an 8.50 ERA. That means a lot of runs are being scored and the over is 7-0 in that span.

With Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa out of the lineup the Astros needed someone to step up. And they got a grandiose performance from Alex Bregman on Tuesday. With a pair of dingers, Bregman tied for the AL lead and sparked an offensive outburst. Houston tallied nine runs on Tuesday and six on Monday for their two highest scoring outputs in the last 10 games.

Probable Pitchers

No starter has gone more than 6.0 innings in the last seven games so the Cubs desperately need a solid outing from Kyle Hendricks ( 4-4, 3.34 ERA ). He has the ability to make hitters look silly with his assortment of off-speed pitches and had a remarkable three-game stretch earlier this month when he gave up just one earned run and 12 hits over 25 frames.

Hendricks lasted 6.0 innings in his last start giving up six hits and three earned taking a ND in a loss to the Reds. He’s allowed seven earned runs over 11.2 innings of his last two starts and will seek to regain the mastery he had in his near shutout run. Hendricks has never faced the Astros and only two players on the current roster have an AB against him. That typically benefits the pitcher.

Added to bolster the rotation, Wade Miley ( 5-2, 3.32 ERA ) has done more than just eat innings. And when he’s on the Minute Maid Park hill Houston fans go home happy. Miley owns a 3-0 record with a 2.15 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 29.1 innings and the Astros are a perfect 5-0 in his five home starts. Overall he’s won four consecutive decisions boasting a 3.41 ERA in the month of May.

Miley continued his home dominance in his last start holding the Red Sox to four hits and one run with a season-high eight strikeouts over 6.0 innings to get the win. He’s been helped with plenty of run support. The Astros have scored 10 or more runs in four of his starts while averaging better than six runs per game with him on the hill. The Astros are 8-3 in his 11 starts.


Key Stat

Hendricks doesn’t issue a lot of free passes and limiting base runners is one way to slow Houston’s recent scoring binge. The righty has walked just 12 batters in 62 innings, and three of those came in his first start of the year. With 1.74 walks per nine innings Hendricks ranks 11th in MLB, and that number is even lower if you eliminate that first outing. He hasn’t walked more than two batters in any of his last nine starts and his ratio is 1.40 over that span.

Bet Cubs at Astros at

With three starters and heavy bats out of the lineup, it’s hard to imagine the Astros continuing with their offensive assault on Cubs pitching. Hendricks needs to have a strong outing to stabilize what has become a shaky rotation, and he needs to keep the pen out of the game. The question is can the Cubs get to Miley? The lefty has been solid at home, but it’s not like he’s Cy Young. Kris Bryant is also close to returning and he hits .455 against Miley. I like Chicago’s chances in this one with Hendricks keeping the ball in the yard.

MLB Score Prediction: Cubs 6, Astros 4

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- Phil Simon,

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