Line on App State vs. Louisiana Week 7 at UL Lafayette -2

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:

Appalachian State puts their 4-0 record on the line Thursday night versus Louisiana.   The Mountaineers are a +2 dog in this one.

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Zach Thomas passed for two touchdowns, Darrynton Evans and Marc Williams rushed for two touchdowns each and Appalachian State opened Sun Belt Conference play with a 56-37 win over Coastal Carolina on Saturday night.

Odds Analysis

To Win The Sun Belt Championship

App State -130 (pays $100 for every $130 bet with that $130 refunded should App State win)

Louisiana +1000 (pays $1000 for every $100 bet)

Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas each ran for two touchdowns and Louisiana-Lafayette beat Georgia Southern, 37-24, in the Sun Belt Conference opener for both schools in Week 5.

Both teams have a better than 25% chance of making the Playoffs.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Chance to reach playoff: 30%

The Ragin' Cajuns are the G5's version of Oklahoma. They boast an elite offense with a middling defense and are the best team in their mid-tier conference. Appalachian State is their Texas -- a decent challenger but not quite on the same level. Because Appalachian State is in the opposite division, a win for Louisiana next week over the Mountaineers would only boost the Ragin' Cajuns' chances of winning the conference from 42% to 48%.

Appalachian State Mountaineers
Chance to reach playoff: 27%

While the Sun Belt has a couple legitimate contenders for the playoff, the conference only has a 56% chance to get at least one of them in, so it needs to avoid cannibalizing itself. In other words, the Sun Belt needs the winner of the Appalachian State vs. Louisiana game next Wednesday to also win the conference title. And no, there's virtually no shot they could both get in.

- Dan Shapiro,

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