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Free MLB Pick for June 22 on the Dodgers Again?....This Time at a Better Price But...

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jun/22/2022

To kick off this new week in MLB series, Gambling911.com has been doing just swell. 

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Monday we told you to take the UNDER on the Yankees-Rays game, even if that total came in at 6.  It did not.  It actually came in at 6.5 and landed on the 6 when all was said and done.

Tuesday we had you taking the Dodgers on the road in Cincinnati.  You're probably not going to get a higher price than what was being offered on LA with red hot starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin.

The Dodgers were a -175 favorite and beat the Reds 8-2.  Gonsolin was delivered his 5th straight win.  With that victory, the Dodgers are now LA 14-4 in their last 18 games versus the Reds.  In other words, with a decent enough sample size, Cincinnati is winning just 23% of their games against LA of late.

On Wednesday, the Dodgers start another pitcher with zero losses, Tyler Anderson.  More specifically he's 8-0 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Anderson is coming off a win but had one of his rougher games the previous start.  That's when he was charged with four runs in three-plus innings against the White Sox. 

He's allowed 12 hits in 41 at bats against Reds hitters. That's actually pretty brutal.

Luis Castillo will start for the Reds.  He's 2-4 with a 3.33 ERA.

Castillo has not had a win since May 31, but not because he's necessarily been pitching badly.  This is just not a good team. 

Case in point, Castillo was charged with three runs in seven innings Wednesday in a no-decision versus the Diamondbacks.

Unlike Anderson, he's pitched remarkably well against the Dodgers and will be desperate for a win here.  In 51 at bats, Dodgers hitters have had success with just ten pitches, one of which resulted in a home run.

We like the UNDER 9.5 here a little more than the Dodgers.  Half the last ten meetings between these teams have gone under this number but it's less of a coin toss when one considers the above info.  Take away the last game against Arizona and games Castillo has started in have resulted in the opposing team scoring four or fewer runs in five of the last six. The sixth of those games ended with nine total points being scored.

It's interesting to note that the Reds have failed to score more than two runs against the Dodgers in their last four meetings.  They have scored three or fewer in eight of their last nine.

Factor in Castillo pitching at least six innings and LA hitters having a tough time against him, we should have ourselves the UNDER.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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