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The line on the Houston-UCF game was at -2 after moving down to -1.5 at some books. This number was at -2.5 earlier, prompting us to give the Golden Knights a 57% chance of covering here.
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Sagarin suggests this line should be a PICK'EM. Gambling911.com does have the Golden Knights as a free pick at +2.5.
The Knights come in at 16-4 overall and 6-2 in league play, but eight of their final 10 games come against the upper echelon of the AAC, including two each against conference co-leaders Cincinnati and Houston.
First up: The Cougars.
The Knights have won three of their past four, but in addition to the Cougars and Bearcats, they also haven't played USF (tied for fifth AAC). Further, UCF has another game with Memphis (tied for fifth) -- the Knights lost the first contest -- and a road game remaining at Temple (fourth place).
If the Knights are to establish themselves as bona fide contenders in the AAC, they'll have to knock off the Cougars in a game that figures to be decided by defense and who wins the battle of the experienced backcourts.
It also doesn't help matters that Houston is 9-1 Against The Spread in their last 10 road games.
The Knights also boast a massive presence in the middle in the form of 7-foot-6 senior Tacko Fall, who is eighth in the country with 2.8 blocks per game and fifth in the AAC with 7.1 rebounds per game. Fall also averages 9.8 points per game.
The Cougars counter with a defense that is one of the nation's best.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com, the Associated Press was used for this report.
