History (and Odds) Against Mayfield in his First NFL Start

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Sep/25/2018

Baker Mayfield's recent promotion to starting quarterback prompted GetMoreSports.com, a sports betting information website, to research and uncover a very interesting trend.

Quarterbacks that were the No. 1 overall pick making their first NFL start are 0-10 straight up and 0-10 against the spread since 2003. The last quarterback drafted first overall to win or cover in his first start was David Carr with the Texans in 2002.

The 22 quarterbacks selected No. 1 in NFL history are 4-18 overall and 3-15 against the spread (spread statistics date back to 1985) in their first starts. Teams with top quarterback draft picks making NFL debuts averaged just 16.0 points per game.

The full list of quarterbacks, stats and scores can be found here.

Additionally, No. 1 picks as starters during their rookie season are 72-155 overall (.317 winning percentage) and 83-97-4 ATS (46.1%). Only four of the 22 quarterbacks posted winning ATS records, and just one of the 22 (Andrew Luck) posting a winning record in his rookie year.

The most recent first overall selection, Jared Goff, went 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS in his seven starts as a rookie. You can find the full list of records for rookie starters here.

The Browns are currently 2.5-point underdogs at Oakland in Week 4 according to sportsbooks monitored by Get More Sports, and they are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season, but history clearly suggests Cleveland is a bad bet this Sunday.

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