Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Betting Pick - 2019

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:

The Georgia Bulldogs are headed to Jordan-Hale Stadium to take on the Auburn Tigers in a cross-divisional SEC matchup slated for 3:30 EST on CBS. The Bulldogs are coming into this game off of a shutout victory over Mizzou and they are focused on making in through the rest of their season on their way to meet up with LSU in the SEC Championship game. Auburn is coming off of a very sluggish win over Ole Miss two weeks ago.

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This game is a big deal for both teams, but I do think that Georgia’s motivation in this game is not something to scoff at. While Auburn does still have a chance to reel off wins against top 10 ranked Georgia and Alabama on their way to a New Year’s Six games, I still think that this game is inherently bigger for Georgia. The fact that this is a home game for Auburn should neutralize that.

On the offensive side of the ball for Georgia, I will be very interested to see how their play-calling and game management changes in this game. I have been very critical of the Bulldogs in recent years because of their very conservative play-calling that has seemingly disappeared in their games against Alabama in recent years until they got a lead. The odd part about this concept is that they really have only looked like a different offense against the Crimson Tide over the last few years.

I get playing a ball control, physical game against lesser opponents in an attempt to wear them down and eventually pull away while not exposing yourself to a lot of turnovers in the process. However, when that does not work, you saw what happens in their game against South Carolina. Georgia wasn’t clearly dominant in the trenches and this eventually forced them to play aggressive late, which led to turnovers and eventually a loss.

While this result was still relatively fluky, I think that Auburn is basically just a much better version of South Carolina and I really struggle to see Georgia just run all over this Auburn interior. Georgia should have the best o-line in the country, but they have been one of the biggest disappointments in college football this season.

Keys to Game

If Georgia cannot just bully Auburn’s front seven like they would like to, will they continue to smash their heads into the wall or will they open up the playbook early and force the Tigers to defend the whole field? I lean towards the notion that they will continue to smash their heads into the wall for a significant part of the game, but that is almost baked into this line of -2.5 in favor of Georgia.

I would be stunned if Auburn has more total yards in this game than Georgia, but that does not mean that they cannot win this game. In Baton Rouge, Auburn was basically doubled up in total yardage but they only lost by 3 points and were able to cover that spread.

I have zero faith in this Auburn offense moving the ball against a top 3 defense in the country because they have struggled to move the ball in MUCH better spots like against Ole Miss and against LSU. Bo Nix has made a few nice plays, but he is not ready to deal with the best defense he has ever faced.

Bulldogs Win Big One

For an Auburn victory, the recipe is simply to force turnovers and convert on the good drives. However, I cannot bet on those two things happening even though I would not be surprised that they did. I expect this game to be low scoring and close for a while, but I have to take the much better football team at -2.5 on the road. I like Georgia to win and cover the number. Take Georgia -2.5 at our favorite pay per head bookie

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