Free Picks, Predictions for the Alabama vs. Memphis College Basketball Game December 14

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:

The line on this game was coming in at Alabama -4.  Some had the line at -3.5. has the line at Crimson Tide -7. 


A Review of the Past Week Results

Just a quick check out how our Edge Analyses for the past week has gone.

Villanova vs. Baylor - The Bears did have the slight edge in a couple of areas including primarily as the home favorite moneyline priced around -200.  Not only did they win outright, they easily covered the -4.5 spread with a 21-point win.

Arizona vs. Illinois - The Wildcats had the edge in most cagegories while Illinois did have a slight edge based only on a half point overlay and the Fighting Illini being due to win one Against The Spread.  Arizona was between a -1.5 and -2.5 favorite.   They did cover by 4 points.

Kentucky vs. Notre Dame - We did like the Wildcats by 4 points with Notre Dame only having a slight edge in the Head-to-Head trends.  They did manage to stun Kentucky, however, even with a 1.5 point underlay recognized. S*** happens. 

Missouri vs. Kansas - We had Mizzou +25.  But the Jayhawks managed to destroy Missouri.  This one had all the hallmarks of a situation where the significant overlay was indeed warranted.

Wisonsin vs. Ohio State - We liked OSU winning on the moneyline and they did in fact cover. 

BYU vs. Creighton - We had Creighton -7 and they covered with an 11-point win. 

We wrote: "Creighton's Against The Spread losses have mostly been a result of lines in the double digits including three games where they were listed at -19 or greater.  Assuming our line is correct, Creighton would be the biggest underdog of the season, making them all the more appealing.  So far, they've lost a game as a +3.5 underdog (vs. CSU) and won a game as a +3 dog at Nebraska."

Edge Analysis

Head-to-Head: No Edge - Alabama beat Memphis at home last season as a -4 point favorite last time they met but that was in 2017. 

ATS Due: No Edge 

As an Underdog/Favorite, More Trends: Memphis Slight Edge  - As a favorite, Alabama is 43-13-0 Straight Up since 2019 for a win rate of nearly 77%.  Memphis though is 9-3 Against The Spread as an underdog since 2019 and that is a 75% cover rate with a decent size sampling.  As Home Team, Memphis has gone 29-5-0 Straight Up since 2019 and, the one time they were an underdog at home, won that game outright.  As an underdog overall, they are 3-9 SU since 2019. 

Recent Trends: Memphis Slight Edge - Memphis lost their last four games but the last three were all within 3 to 4 points.  Of Alabama's last eight wins, six have been by more than the current spread.

Overlay/Underlay: Alabama Big Edge - There is an underlay of 4 to 4.5 points.

Memphis got off to a fast 5-0 start before dropping their last four games.  It's too early to know if this is just a momentary setback. 

Ronald Evans of FanSided makes a really good point and we're sort of on the same page as this big underlay looks a bit suspicious.

"After back-to-back wins over Gonzaga and Houston, the Crimson Tide is vulnerable to being emotionally flat on Tuesday night. In that sense, the contest is a bit like a trap game with a possibly less intense Tide and a talented Memphis team hungry for a win."

Memphis +4.5 looks like the play here, albeit a small one

- Tyrone Black,

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