Free Picks, Predictions for the Gonzaga vs. Texas Tech College Basketball Game December 18

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

It's pretty much a given that the betting public will be jumping all over mighty Gonzaga in its game versus Texas Tech Saturday.  As such, we always want to watch for those overlays while being careful of too large a gap that is often indicative of an expected Bulldogs pounding.


Today's game features an overlay of just 3.5 points with Gonzaga coming in at -9.5.  Texas Tech actually has the better record at 8-1 compared to the Zags 8-2.  We're definitely seeing some great value on the Red Raiders, especially being that their record Against The Spread (5-4) is completely out of sync with their Straight Up record.

Indeed, 80% or greater of the betting public is eating up Gonzaga.  The 3.5 overlay is a little suspicious and worries us a bit as this could once again be indicative of the books believing Gonzaga wins big here.  They, too, have to get their ATS record (4-6) more in line with their Straight Up record.

There is something else that scares us: Against Ranked Opponents, Texas Tech is just 7-14-0 Against The Spread since 2019.  Gonzaga is also 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  

The Texas Tech ATS record and their overall power rating suggests the Red Raiders may not be as good as their record suggests. 

They actually handed the Zags one of their rare losses in recent years (2019) as a +11 road dog.

We're gonna stick with the data and go with a small play on Texas Tech, the smallest of small plays +9.5.

- Don Shapiro,

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