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Projections Ahead of Ravens-Dolphins Game Suggest Miami Cover

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Sep/06/2019

The Miami Dolphins are expected to be the worst team in the league this year and a recent purging of key talent helps to reinforce this notion.  Yet projections coming into Sunday's game point to the potential for a Dolphins cover.

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What The Hell is Going On?

The bookmakers know what they are doing.

Baltimore is the biggest exposure of the week and the oddsmakers seemingly responded to the action coming in.

But the days ahead of this game, some of the sharper books teased with a line of Ravens -6.5 after having already moved to -7.  A number of recreational books the likes of Bovada were still holding at -7.

Because the number initially opened at Ravens -3.5, books will see damaging exposure should Baltimore win by 4 to 6 points. This is indeed a rare occurence nowadays.

Gambling911.com's theory is that Miami could ultimately lose by a field goal at home.

As of Friday morning, Gambling911.com was yet to pull the trigger on the Dolphins in terms of a pick for Week 1.  This could change as Game Day approaches.

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Ravens Still Likely to Win Outright

Gambling911.com made the Ravens an early Survivor Pool pick for Week 1 based on their domination over Miami of late.  The books also continue to boost the Ravens moneyline price despite the spread tease (-290 to -310 is the norm). 

Baltimore Ravens - PLAY - Sure you can wait for a better team to face and crush the Dolphins, but why not hold onto your Patriots, Chiefs and Rams picks for more competitive matchups?  Baltimore is at 33/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  The Dolphins have the longest odds and are favored to win four or fewer games this season (and that's probably being a little too generous).  Did we mention the Ravens destroyed Miami 40-0 two years ago?

How the Dolphins Can Potentially Cover the Spread

From the Sun Sentinel:

Kenyan Drake, who accounted for 1,012 offensive yards and scored a team-leading nine touchdowns last season, is the most established weapon on Miami’s offense. He’s a threat to score just about every time he touches the football, but needs to become a more disciplined runner.

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has a knack for throwing receivers open, but he’ll need someone – anyone – to deliver big catches for him if Miami’s offense plans to convert on third downs, sustain drives and score in the red zone. DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant are getting close to being fully healthy, so hopefully one of those veterans steps up with Kenny Stills gone to Houston. These three veterans and rookie Preston Williams need to deliver big plays.

Lamar Jackson only completed 58.2 percent of his passes last season, and only threw six touchdown passes.

As of Friday morning, Gambling911.com was yet to pull the trigger on the Dolphins in terms of a pick for Week 1.  This could change as Game Day approaches.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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