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Week 1 of the college football season will bring out the betting public from its offseason hibernation. And while the casual bettor will throw down on his or her favorite team, the wise guys have done their research and will make the smart bets. Is it wise guys or wiseguys? I’m not sure since I’ve seen it written both ways, but one thing you can be sure of is that the wise guys, or sharps for another term, know what they’re doing. These plays courtesy of Bookmaker.eu
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Offshore sportsbooks pay closer attention to wise guys than they do the average bettor. The wise guys can influence a betting line in any sport, and when they do make a wager the books are watching. It’s not always easy to tell what a wise guy is up to, but paying close attention the to line and the handle can help you make a smarter wager. More money is wagered on football than any other sport and wise guys are doing their thing with the opening of the college football season.
Let’s take a look at a few games on the Week 1 schedule where the sharps have impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite college football team.
College Football Week 1 Wise Guy Picks
Georgia Tech at Clemson ( -37, 60.5 ), Thursday, August 29, 8 p.m. ET Bet here
The easiest way to tell if sharps are hitting a game is to watch the spread. If a majority of the public is betting one way and the line moves making the public play more attractive, there’s a good chance wise guys are hitting the other side. And that’s exactly what we have in this Thursday night matchup between the defending national champion and No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers and Georgia Tech.
Large spreads are common in college football. Heck, six games on the board currently have a line north of 30 points. But we typically see a high number when a major program plays a team from a lesser conference or an FCS foe. With this being an ACC game, the 33-points given to Tech on the opening line was something the public couldn’t pass up. While the Jackets are getting over 70 percent of the play, the line has increased to Clemson -37. Wise guys have confidence that Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Justin Boyd, et al. will get it done in a big way against a transitioning Tech team.
Missouri ( -18, 55.5 ) at Wyoming, Saturday, August 31, 7:30 p.m. ET Bet here
Squares don’t typically move the line when it comes to wagering so if there is significant movement that’s another indication that sharps are hitting it. Of course there are other outside factors like injuries or weather that can shift the spread, but we don’t see any of those having an impact before this matchup.
Playing at home and getting 15.5-points on the opening line made Wyoming and attractive pick to over 60 percent of the public. The Cowboys have three straight non-losing seasons, a top defense, and the return of quarterback Sean Chambers after injury took most of his 2018 away. The Drew Lock-less Tigers are a bit of an unknown. Both are middle-of-the-pack teams in their conference with wise guys backing the SEC Tigers over the Mountain West Cowboys.
Oregon vs. Auburn ( -3.5, 55.5 ), Saturday, August 31, 7:30 p.m. ET Bet here
The only game on the Week 1 schedule pitting ranked teams against each other is the marquee matchup of the weekend. Movement on the line has been subtle, but it’s been significant. The Oregon Ducks are ranked higher, they have a Heisman Trophy candidate and future NFL draft pick at quarterback, and they possess an underrated defense. The betting public is digging the Ducks at +2.5 on the opening line in this one with nearly 60 percent of the action on them.
So why hasn’t the line come down? Well, it looks like the sharps are again backing the SEC pushing the spread to Auburn -3.5. It appears as though Gus Malzahn is pulling out all the stops in a do-or-die season for him. For the first time Malzahn has a true freshman quarterback starting in Bo Nix and any offensive improvement should help them win more than eight games. The Tigers have a typical SEC defense that’s fast and physical, and can negate OU’s playmakers. Either way this is going to be a good one.
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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor (Article Courtesy of Bookmaker.eu)
