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Unlike Thursday where no one team stood out in getting significant betting action, Friday's March Madness late had a clear public favorite in the Cincinnati Bearcats.
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Some of this most likely stems from their much publicized home court advantage. The Bearcats will be facing Iowa a mere hour-and-a-half from where they are based, in Columbus, Ohio. Should the Bearcats advance to the Sweet 16, they would play in another nearby city of Louisville.
75% of the spread action was on Cincinnati for this 12:15 pm EST matchup. It's the first game of the day.
The line on this game has drifted slowly up from Bearcats -3.5 to -4.5. A closer analysis shows the line is moving in conjunction with the action coming in.
Cal Irvine is clearly the second most wagered on side of the day at +4.5 with upwards of 65% of the action against Kansas State.
Here we would anticipate the line moving downward, and indeed it has off the -5.5 to -4.5. Any move back to -5 would be reason to pause and consider KSU. The line has stalled at -4.5.
The Buffalo Bulls are another highly wagered on side seeing some 80% or more of the action. The number here is trending upwards from -4.5 to -5. It is interesting that we have seen the number at -5.5 earlier but books are holding pat at -5 Friday morning. There is a slight hint at an opinion favoring Arizona State. Sagarin indicates that the Bulls should be no more than a -4 point favorite. Gambling911 is giving ASU a 55% chance of covering but has not pulled the trigger in picking the Sun Devils just yet. Any move back towards the -4.5 will be monitored carefully throughout the day. This game goes off at 4 pm EST.
Mississippi may be the only team in this year's March Madness tournament in which not a single bet has come in for them to win the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, the wagering public does like the Rebels to win in the short term. As a -1.5 favorite versus Oklahoma, Ole Miss was seeing better than 60% of the spread action. Oklahoma is clearly the better team here by 2 points according to the Sagarin Ratings. The line is going in the wrong direction. Gambling911.com is giving the Sooners a 55% chance here but will not officially be picking Oklahoma. Instead, all eyes will be on Arizona State to see if we do ultimately get down on the Sun Devils.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
