CFB Betting Week 5 – Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

They won’t play Alabama unless it’s for the SEC championship so the Georgia Bulldogs have to do whatever they can to make a statement. They did that last week with an impressive victory over Vanderbilt. You could say there are no easy games in the conference, but the Dawgs put that idea to bed with their 62-0 shellacking. They scored nearly as many points as the defense allowed yards. The Arkansas Razorbacks aren’t going to back down and they’re feeling confident heading into this top-10 matchup. The Hogs methodically took down Texas AM last week, their second win over a ranked foe this season. Arkansas is catching 18.5-points on the college football betting line for its first road game of the season.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs
Date and Time: Saturday, October 2, 2021, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
CFB Odds: Georgia -18.5, O/U 49.5
Arkansas at Georgia TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

Arkansas proved its worth at home going 4-0 SU and ATS over the first month of the season. Included were wins over ranked Texas and Texas AM vaulting the Hogs into the top-10. They play their first road game of the season against a club similar to what Texas AM looks like. Both the Aggies and Bulldogs have a powerful run game and strong defensive fronts. The Hogs handled the pressure last week but will face a stiff challenge between the hedges. And Arkansas will have to win on the road to prove it has arrived. The Hogs are just 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS in their last 14 road outings.

Georgia received four first-place votes in this week’s AP poll and the Dawgs have looked like the top team this season. That opening win may not be as powerful now that Clemson is just 2-2, but the Dawgs have been downright nasty. They hit the board as a whopping 19.5-point favorite with the public jumping on the Razorbacks forcing the line down a full point. Even with a defense that’s allowed 23 total points in four games, the Dawgs are 3-1 against the OVER. They are doing something right on offense. The total spiked a point to 49.5 after hitting the board at 48.5.

Arkansas Razorbacks

No offense to Texas AM but the Razorbacks take a huge step up in competition. For one Georgia has been better than advertised and the Hogs just haven’t had success on the road in previous years. We will see just how good the Razorbacks are facing the No. 2 team in the country. One thing about this club is it’s very physical and will match Georgia in the trenches. The Hogs took it to Texas AM from the get go with a dominant performance up front. “Really happy with the team’s toughness...our toughness showed tonight,” coach Sam Pittman said after the upset victory.

KJ Jefferson embodied the team’s toughness last week returning to the game after leaving briefly with a knee injury. Jefferson threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns against an Aggies defense that hadn’t allowed a passing score all season. He also ran for 50 yards as the Hogs controlled the game on the ground rushing for 197 yards on 49 attempts. The team is forging an identity as one that works harder than its opponents and pummels them into submission. I’m not sure that’s going to work against Georgia.

Georgia Bulldogs

It’s easy to talk about Georgia’s defense since it’s been dominant. So, let’s start there. The Dawgs have allowed a total of 23 points in four games, which works out to 5.8 points per game. Second on the list is Texas AM allowing an average of 9.3 points. Poor Arkansas gets those schools in consecutive weeks, but the Hogs know they can penetrate the best after scoring 20 points in their win over the Aggies. Let’s get back to UGA. Vanderbilt is a Power 5 team and the Dawgs made them look like a junior college in last week’s victory.

JT Daniels headed to the bench after playing just one quarter. Daniels sparked the offense throwing for 129 yards and two touchdowns taking a seat with a 35-0 bulge. And the offense has been quietly good this season. Overshadowed by the exploits of the nation’s top defense, the Dawgs are averaging nearly 53 points over their last three games. Daniels is completing 76 percent of his throws with five touchdowns and is unbeaten in his seven starts with the team.

Bet Arkansas at Georgia at BookMaker.eu

After seeing what Arkansas did last week I don’t think the Bulldogs are going to overlook their opponent. And it’s not like the Dawgs are overworked since most of their starters haven’t played a full game since Week 1. The Hogs have demonstrated a willingness to run the football by overpowering teams at the line of scrimmage. That will lead to several long drives and time off the clock giving me confidence to back the UNDER. And it’s hard to pass on the points for a team that has a lot of confidence.

CFB Score Prediction: Georgia 27, Arkansas 17

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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