CFB Betting – TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma Sooners

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

For those who invested in Spencer Rattler as the Heisman Trophy winner at the start of the season it looks like you can kiss that one goodbye. With Rattler benched the Oklahoma Sooners rallied behind a freshman backup staging an epic comeback against Texas to remain undefeated. Five of OU’s six wins have been by a touchdown or less with a 1-4 ATS record in those games. The Sooners have won 14 in a row overall and take a seven-game winning streak over the TCU Horned Frogs into their Big 12 matchup on Saturday. Oklahoma hit the board as a 12-point favorite with early action on the Frogs pushing the number down a point.

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma Sooners
Date and Time: Saturday, October 16, 2021, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
CFB Odds: Oklahoma -11, O/U 65.5
TCU at Oklahoma TV Coverage: ABC

Odds Analysis

Oklahoma opened laying 12-points with the spread quickly bet down to OU -11. Outside of the Sooners’ 76-0 romp over Western Carolina their games have been close with the other five against FBS competition decided by seven points or less. OU overcame a 21-point deficit last week to beat Texas 55-48, covering the 4-point line by scoring a touchdown on the game’s final play. That stopped a 3-game ATS skid with OU improving to 2-4 ATS overall. TCU also had a big offensive day in its 52-31 win over Texas Tech, snapping a 2-game slide and covering the 2.5-point line for its first cover. The Frogs are 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. OU won the previous seven meetings and 10 of the last 11. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters.

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU has played in just one Big 12 Championship game and any hopes of making it two hinge on the outcome of Saturday’s tilt. The Sooners are vulnerable and the Frogs are coming off their biggest offensive game of the season blasting Texas Tech 52-31 for their first cover of the year while cashing the OVER for the third time in four games.

Behind Kendre Miller and Zach Evans, the Frogs are one of the best rushing teams in the country. Miller had 185 yards and three touchdowns last week with Evans going for 143 yards and two scores. TCU totaled 394 yards averaging 8.4 yards per carry and averages over 236 yards for the season to rank among the top-15 nationally. They will be playing into Oklahoma’s strength, though, so something has to give. OU allows just 91 yards per game on the ground to rank 12th nationally.

The fate of the Frogs will likely be in the hands of Max Duggan and a defense that allows nearly 430 yards per game. Duggan threw just 10 passes on Saturday completing eight for 104 yards and a touchdown. He’s been efficient when he does throw completing 64.7 percent for 1,003 yards and nine touchdowns. Duggan needs to be at his best if the Frogs are to think about the upset. It’s hard to imagine the defense slowing down OU giving this one the look of another shootout.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners have won 14 straight overall dating back to last season, but they’ve never looked as vulnerable as they do now. They opened the season with a narrow victory over Tulane and had close calls against Nebraska, West Virginia and K-State before last week’s thriller. At least they know how to win the close games and they gave backers a gift with the second biggest comeback in program history. OU trailed 28-7 in the first quarter only to rally for the victory scoring the game-winning touchdown on the final play.

That was huge with the Sooners a 4-point favorite on the closing line. They were in field goal range for the win, but Kennedy Brooks went 33 yards on the final snap for the 55-48 cover. There are some concerns, though. Rattler was replaced after two turnovers led to the early deficit and the giveaways are troubling. Caleb Williams took over going 16 of 25 for 212 yards with two touchdowns. He also ran for 88 and a TD on four carries.

The offense performed at a higher level with Williams at the helm. The running of Brooks was a big help. Brooks totaled 217 yards and two touchdowns averaging 8.7 yards per carry. Known for their explosive offense, the Sooners amassed 662 yards. We don’t know who starts at QB this week, but there’s a good chance Williams sees more action moving forward.

Bet TCU at Oklahoma at BookMaker.eu

In six previous games with a total above 60 the UNDER went 4-2. There are a lot of points on the field however, and with two shaky defenses we could see the teams exceed the total. I’m not sold on Oklahoma and neither is the betting public apparently. The line was bet down and you should buy TCU while it’s still up there.

CFB Score Prediction: TCU 35, Oklahoma 31

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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