Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 5 Odds

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Buffalo Bills are playing like they have something to prove, and in a way they do. A preseason favorite to reach the Super Bowl, the Bills have to get by the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, something they failed to do last season. Not only did Buffalo lose the regular season meeting between the clubs they also fell in the AFC Championship with Patrick Mahomes outdueling Josh Allen. The Bills are the hottest team in the NFL heading into the Sunday Night Football matchup having won three straight games by a combined score of 118-21, yet they are a 2.5-point underdog on the NFL betting line.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, October 10, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Opening NFL Odds: Kansas City -2.5, O/U 56.5
Bills at Chiefs TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs despite their 2-2 record and sloppy defense in the early season. Playing at home definitely means something with KC hitting the board as 3.5-point chalk in the AFC Championship rematch. Recent Buffalo results have some fans swarming on the visitors knocking the line down a full point to KC -2.5. The Chiefs closed a 3-point favorite back in January and advanced to the Super Bowl with their 38-24 win overcoming an early 9-0 deficit. Since the start of last season and including playoffs the Bills are 18-5 SU and 15-8 ATS. KC stopped a 2-game skid with its 42-30 win over the Eagles last week, also picking up its first cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Both teams can score which is why the total of 56.5 is the highest on the Week 5 board. The teams combined for 62 points in the AFC title tilt playing OVER the total of 55.

Buffalo Bills

Bouncing back nicely from its season-opening 23-16 loss to the Steelers, the Bills have looked every bit like a top challenger to the Chiefs and whatever other teams emerge as contenders. They dominated Miami, Washington and Houston winning all three games by an average margin of over 32 points while going 3-0 ATS. Those teams are a combined 4-8 so this week will be a bit more challenging.

The Bills have the third-highest scoring average and have yet to get consistent play from Allen. He was 20 of 30 with 248 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. He also tossed a pick. The offense has been aided by the NFL best defense in terms of takeaways setting up a number of short fields, which Allen has converted into points. The stats are always deceptive in that regard.

What’s not deceiving is Buffalo’s defense, which posted a pair of shutouts in the last three games and leads the NFL in fewest yards and points allowed. The group had a hard time containing Mahomes last season allowing 325 passing yards and three TDs to the former league MVP. The Bills have seven interceptions among their NFL best 11 takeaways, but they failed to pick off Mahomes in 64 pass attempts last season.

Kansas City Chiefs

With Mahomes running the show the Chiefs are never out of a game. And he can do a lot to make up for the defensive deficiencies. In last week’s game against Philadelphia when the Chiefs stopped a 2-game SU and 3-game ATS losing streak, Mahomes was at his best throwing five touchdown passes on 24 of 30 passing. Even when opponents know what’s coming they’re powerless to stop it. Tyreek Hill showed his explosive playmaking skills with 11 receptions on 12 targets for 186 yards and three scores. Hill currently ranks third in the NFL with 30 catches and 453 yards.

You can take away one weapon like the Eagles did by eliminating Travis Kelce, but the Chiefs beat you in other ways. They have developed a run game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire amassing two straight 100-yard rushing games, and it’s possible we see Josh Gordon make his debut on Sunday after being reinstated. Gordon hasn’t played since 2019 but he has elite level talent and gives the second-best offense another weapon.

The Chiefs need all those weapons to cover for a defense that’s allowed at least 29 points in every game. They are next to last against the run and in total yards and points allowed. Jalen Hurts threw for a career-high 387 yards against them last week and Allen is going to be pumped to face the Chiefs’ vulnerable group on Sunday.

Bet Bills at Chiefs at BookMaker.eu

The Chiefs will figure out the defense, they did last season and won the conference title. And Mahomes continues to do things that defy explanation. The offense has an added dimension and could have another playmaker causing fits for Buffalo. We’ll probably see a lot of points scored, but the total is up there even for these teams. Until someone knocks off the Chiefs they are still the champs and I expect they’ll be pumped to face a major challenger, so I’m backing the home team.

NFL Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 24

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911,com

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