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Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Game 1 Betting Preview - March 28

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Mar/28/2019

The Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners game will begin at 7:10 pm EST.  Nearly 75% of consensus plays are favoring the Red Sox as a high priced -182 favorite.


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The line on this game had gotten as high as -201.  The trend has been downward since then though the line initially opened around where it is now.

The Boston Red Sox kick off the defense of their latest championship when they visit the Seattle Mariners on Thursday. While the Red Sox will be enjoying their regular-season opener, the Mariners already have a jump on the competition after earning a pair of wins over the Oakland Athletics in Japan last week.

The UNDER is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings and 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Seattle with the total runs set at 7, a number that has not moved as of Thursday morning.

*Hot Tip: Generally when the UNDER would look more favorable in a particular series, we would look for a total that is dropping.  In this case, if the number was falling from 7 to 6.5.  We would then review the starting pitcher recent performance for each team.  In situations where both starters have pitched well throughout the season and gave up significant runs in their last outing (and especially two most recent outings), the chances that they are going to reduce the number of runs in this matchup become that much greater and and UNDER that much more likely.  Recent head-to-head total outcomes should also be taken into consideration.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Chris Sale (2018: 12-4, 2.11 ERA) vs. Mariners LH Marco Gonzales (1-0, 4.50)

Sale battled shoulder inflammation down the stretch and into the playoffs but struck out the side to cap off the World Series win and was signed to a $145 million extension last week that will keep him in Boston through the 2024 season. "I like to win," Sale told reporters. "Last year was awesome and I want to keep doing that." Sale finished in the top five of the AL Cy Young Award voting in each of the last seven seasons and is 29-12 with a 2.56 ERA and 545 strikeouts in 372 1/3 innings over two seasons in Boston.

Gonzales allowed four runs - three earned - on seven hits and a walk in six innings against the Athletics last week, striking out four. The 27-year-old was still being extended as part of his spring training routine and was limited to 69 pitches in that outing. Gonzales went 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA in a breakout 2018 campaign but suffered the loss in his lone outing against Boston, yielding five runs and seven hits in six innings on June 24.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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