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Binary Thinking and Betting, Prediction vs Probability

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:
Sep/06/2020

Luke Petty studied conomics at The University of Exeter before embarking on a career that combines two of his greatest interests, writing and sports betting.  He's now with Pinnacle Sports and this week looked into binary thinking and betting, and more specifically, what is a good bet?


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As shown above, humans prefer to sort information into two distinct categories where possible. This is also the case within betting.

To an inexperienced bettor, a good bet is simply one that wins. A bad bet is one that loses. Those two buckets are easy to grasp and make intuitive sense to somebody without a good grasp of the nuances behind betting.

This however, is completely false. A winning bet can be a terrible bet whilst the best bet ever placed may have turned out to be a loser. By categorising bets in such a simple way, all of the useful information gets stripped away.

Episode 146 - Hidden Risks with Harry Crane Last week, The Business of Betting - PODCAST featured Harry Crane, a statistical professor at Rutgers University.  He talks: Betting & Gambling with a Statistics Professor - Real world risk - Naive Probabilism - Open vs Closed Systems - Prediction vs Probability

- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com

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