Betting The Total - 2019 AFC Championship
The New England Patriots have finally met their match as they head to snowy, cold, Arrowhead stadium for the AFC Championship Game.
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This game is set to be one for the ages. One that pits the great Tom Brady against the young upstart Patrick Mahomes.
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Predictions
Two great offensive teams come into this battle and forgetting the past is probably a good idea. Of course we know that old saying that says, ‘those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it”. We get it, but does this really apply to the Chiefs? These guys haven’t won anything since 1970! What about the Patriots? It seems these guys are always winning but look at the missed opportunities. What could have been for the Patriots? It’s mind-boggling to think about. Forget about the distant past and focus on this season… What went down?
Betting the Total—Over/Under 55
Where is the value, the over 55 points or the under? Let’s take a look-
Chiefs Vs. Patriots-Week 6 Final Score 43-40
Looking at the final score from the week 6 regular season matchup in Foxboro, one might automatically think “over”. Reasonably so. There is no reason to think otherwise. The halftime score in this affair was Chiefs 24, Patriots 9.
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The better numbers to look at is who scored what… How many points did the Chiefs average for the season, how many did they allow. The same should be asked for the Patriots. This is after all, exactly what the oddsmakers depend on when determining the total.
The Chiefs are scoring 35.3 points per game (1st) and putting up 425.6 (3rd) yards of total offense, this number tells you two things. 1. They scored often and on everybody. 2. They were always in a position to score, they played from the red zone more often than any other team.
The Chiefs are allowing 26.3 points per game, (24th), they are allowing 405.5 yards of total offense per game (31st). They are allowing 273.4 passing yards per game (31st) and 132.1 (27th) rushing yards per game. What this tells us is this; not only are the Chiefs always in the red zone on offense, they are always in the red zone on defense. Throughout the game, they are constantly allowing the opponent to be squarely in scoring position. Both the offense and defensive stats prove the worthiness of an “over the total”.
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The Patriots are scoring 27.2 points per game (4th), they are putting up 393.3 yards of total offense (5th). What are they allowing? They are allowing 20.3 points per game, (7th) but allowing 359.1 yards of total offense per game which includes 264.4 yards passing and 112.7 yards rushing.
The numbers tell us this; the Patriots allow a ton of offensive yards, especially on the ground, but they have the ability to shut teams out in the red zone, at least slow them considerably with the 7th best “points allowed” in the NFL.
Let’s assume that the numbers hold up, they stay true to what’s on paper. Why wouldn’t they? This is a playoff game and both teams will be ready to get after it. If we take the bear minimum of what both teams allow, that’s 53.5 points. The total in this game is 55. The margin of error in most games vs. a total, is a touchdown, that’s 7 points. Where does the margin of error fall, in favor of the offense or in favor of the defense?
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If this game was between the Bears and the Cowboys, we would go with the defense. This game is not featuring two teams that have been defensive juggernauts, not by any stretch. Considering the quarterbacks, considering past game plans and considering this is a playoff game that will send the winner to the Super Bowl; these two want to outscore the other at any cost. This one most likely goes over the total of 55.
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