Betting Rule #1: Stay Clear of Big Favs When Dog Sees Heavy Action and Books React

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Wednesday night's Oklahoma City Thunder vs. LA Lakers game was a rare one in which the other team - not named the Lakers - received much of the public betting love.

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At one point in the day, better than three quarters of the spread action was on Portland at +5.5.

The line, though, had moved from +6.5, an indication to the naked eye that books were fearful of an OKC cover.  As such, it appeared they were doing their darndest to get the public backing LA (for once).

Indeed, OKC annihilated LA 105-86.

There was a bit of a distraction earlier in the day for line observers.

5Dimes and a few other sharp books had moved this one up from -5.5 to -6.5 before dropping back down.  Check out this movement from 5Dimes: 

08/05 11:46 am+5½ -105-5½ -105

08/05 10:52 am+6 -105-6 -105

08/05 10:32 am+6½ -105-6½ -105

08/05 10:29 am+6 -101-6 -109

08/05 10:23 am+6 -102-6 -108

08/05 10:22 am+6 -110-6 -110

08/05 9:42 am+5½ -110-5½ -110

In the end, it's best to stay clear of big name favorites when the dog is seeing heavy action and the books are reacting accordingly.

- Don Shapiro,

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