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Gambling911.com is on Clemson at +5.5 (still available some books) with 75% of the betting action and consensus plays on the Louisville Cardinals at home for this Saturday Noon Eastern Time game.
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This is an early Noon Eastern Time game and the Cards were seeing the most action of any side early Saturday at all the books: 75% of the spread action as a -5 favorite. The line movement we would expect to see here is something along the lines of -4 or -4.5 to -5. Instead we are seeing this one drop from as high as -6 overnight. While the home team has won the four most recent meetings, these teams have alternated wins and losses over that time frame. The Tigers had won four straight after losing by a one-point margin in their last game overall. Sagarin indicates that the books had this line right initially when they opened at -6. BetOnline and Bookmaker have both been a little more conservative Saturday morning, moving off the -4.5 to -5. That's enough to keep Clemson's chance of covering here at 57%, otherwise we would be boosting this one towards 62% to 65%. We do like Clemson here nonetheless and this is our early pick at +5.5 (still available some books).
Louisville is coming off a bad loss to Duke. Clemson is coming off a 64-65 loss to a bad Miami team after winning four straight. They could be a little more motivated to this game and, in fact, may have been caught looking ahead a bit.
The Tigers are 5-1 Against The Spread in their last 6 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
The public is anticipating a bounce back by the Cardinals. Indeed, Louisville is 4-0 Against The Spread following a Straight Up loss.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
