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For the first week of MLB 2021, 18 games opened with a total set at 8. Of those, only 6 went OVER. So if you had bet all the totals that opened at 8 on the UNDER, assuming $1000 wagered on each, you would be up $6000 right now.
Whether this particular trend holds up or not remains to be seen.
Let's take a closer look at these OVER games.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers: The line on this game featured little in the way of any drama. We had a move from -104 to -107 across most books.
The total was a whole other animal. At BetOnline, this one actually opened at 8.5 and closed at 7.5. Bovada opened at 8 and moved to 7.5. At Bookmaker, the number dropped as much as 7.
This game finished with a score of 6-5 Milwaukee.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: Unlike the Twins-Brewers game, this one was expected to be a lopsided affair with San Diego favored at -250 and a line that jumped from -215.
The total was already on 8.5 two days prior to game time. While technically this game opened on the 8, this was mostly one that held at 8.5.
The game finished 7-8 with San Diego winning.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: This was another game in the 100 to -110 range.
Some books, like Bookmaker, dropped to 7 while others, like BetOnline, held pat at 8.
This one finished at 12-7 Miami.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers: Yet another game in this series that went against the trend. It was also in the same line range (between -105 and -110).
With the exception of Bookmaker, which briefly opened at 8.5, this one did not move off the 8.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: The line went from -132 to -112 favoring the Nats.
The total moved from 8 to 7.5 across the board.
Washington won 6-5.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: The line climbed from -153 to -174.
The total generally moved from 8 to 8.5
The game total ended up on 10.
With the exception of the later game, the other five had totals that either dropped or stayed steady.
None of the totals that opened marked as U8 went OVER.
Alas, the day of this publication we did have another game that opened at 8 and stay steady go OVER, and it was listed as a U8 (Mariners vs. Twins).
Another of the U8 openers stayed UNDER (Brewers vs. Cardinals). This one dropped to 7.5.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
