Baseball Betting Previews - March 31, 2019 (Podcast)

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:

Starting with the 4:05 pm EST games we will look at a few line moves and which sides are seeing the most action.

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LA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

With both the moneyline and total, there is balanced betting action.

The Oakland line has moved up from -109 to -124 at Pinnacle, -110 to -130 at Bodog.

The total on this game is 8.5 after dropping to 8 from opening at 9.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

Seattle played a few early games in Japan and are now 4-1 for the season.  Boston has dropped two games in Seattle so far.

Around 65% of the action was coming in on the Red Sox.  Closer to 70% of the concensus plays were on Boston.

We have seen the line as low as -137 and as high as -138, but it's generally settled in around -130.  There is no indication that any of the books have a strong opinion on this matchup.

There is no edge for either side as each team has won half of the last ten meetings.

The total, however, has dropped from 9 to 8 with 60% or more of the bets coming in on the OVER.  Even the more conservative Bovada has drifted from 9 to 8.5.  

Only two of the last eight in this series have gone UNDER the current total.  The lowest number of runs we've seen in this series the last three games have been 11. 

Books are begging folks to take the OVER here.

While we are not prepared to offer a pick on the total, we would caution G911 readers to consider the drop from 9 to 8 on the total before placing a bet on the OVER, which obviously has an edge as far as recent trends go.  The OVER is way too tempting but not particularly advisable.

Mariners starter Wade LeBlanc pitched in one of those two games that stayed WELL UNDER this total (1-0 Seattle), but he and Rick Porcello were starters in two games that went way OVER.  

TV: 4:10 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), ROOT Northwest (Seattle)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (2018: 17-7, 4.28 ERA) vs. Mariners LH Wade LeBlanc (2018: 9-5, 3.72)

Porcello rebounded from a rough 2017 campaign when he finished 11-17 by posting the second-most wins in his career while striking out a career-best 190 batters in 2018. The 30-year-old New Jersey native was 10-3 with a 3.86 ERA on the road last year and gave up six runs over 15 1/3 innings during the playoffs. Edwin Encarnacion is 13-for-43 with five doubles, three homers and 10 RBIs versus Porcello, who is 6-5 with a 3.80 ERA in 13 career meetings with the Mariners.

LeBlanc set career highs in victories, starts (27), strikeouts (130) and innings (162) last season as he became a mainstay in the rotation. The 34-year-old Louisiana native was 7-3 with a 3.95 ERA at home in 2018 and kept opponents to a .246 batting average overall but served up 24 homers. Martinez is 4-for-9 with two doubles and a homer against LeBlanc, who is 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in four career games - two last season, including the win - versus the Red Sox.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 

We have the Phillies 2-0 hosting a winless Atlanta team so it's not suprising that 60% or more of the early money line wagers are on Philadelphia and this is especially true of the consensus picks with better than 70% of the plays on Philadelphia at -140. 

The general trend here has been -147 to -140.

The home team in this series has gone 9-1, and both teams have each had five wins over their last ten meetings, Philadelphia winning the last four.  

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Kyle Wright (2018: 0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (2018: 10-11, 3.96)

Atlanta's first-round (fifth overall) pick of the 2017 draft, Wright gets his first major-league start after making four relief appearances late last season. The 23-year-old allowed three runs on four hits in six innings out of the bullpen in 2018, walking six and striking out five, and earned Sunday's start with a strong spring that unraveled in his final two appearances. Wright finished 8-9 with a 3.46 ERA in 27 games between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett last season.

Arrieta's first season in Philadelphia was marked by stark ups and downs, such as a 0.90 ERA in May, a 6.66 ERA in June, a 2.80 ERA in July and a 6.39 ERA in September. The 33-year-old went 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA and 10 homers allowed in 45 1/3 innings across his final nine starts. Arrieta, who posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across four spring-training starts, went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts last season against Atlanta.

2019 MLB Record: 1-0 (100%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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