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The trend has been for the line on this game to move down from LA -4.5 to -4 hosting the Ravens. The total is coming in at 42.
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Our Observation
Most books by Friday evening had moved to Chargers -4. 65% of the action was on LA at -4.5. Moving to the -4 is going against the public betting. Sagarin indicates the line on this game should be Chargers -4 so the number appears to be right on the money.
But there is definitely a slight opinion here that the Ravens cover at +4. As such we are giving the Ravens a 55% chance of covering here. A move to -3.5 and action continuing to be lopsided in Los Angeles' favor could prompt us to move their chance to 60%.
So far we haven't seen any teams since Monday Night Football and the Panthers nearing a 70% chance. The Sagarin number here has us exercising some caution but, again, Ravens do appear to have the slightest of edges in the cover department.
Standout Trends
Between 2012 and 2015 there were three games played between these two teams. Ravens were deemed a better team throughout this period (as was indicated by the assigned lines). While the Chargers were victorious in only one of three, they did not lose by more than a field goal in either of those.
The Ravens are 6-1-1 Against The Spread in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Did You Know? The OVER has happened in five of the last six meetings between these two teams
Predictions
Athlon has the Chargers winning by four, which is right on the spread:
As cliche as it sounds, Saturday night really might feature an unstoppable force in the Chargers' offense meeting an immovable object in the Ravens' defense, opposing football units that may have reached the peak of their powers at the perfect time. Should make for a heck of a game for your holiday weekend, but don’t expect a shootout. If Lamar Jackson can protect the ball and keep the Ravens' defense fresh, it goes down to the wire — but give me the Bolts at home with Philip Rivers leading the way.
Importance of This Game
The Chargers are going to the Playoffs but they are looking to claim the top overall seed and home field advantage.
The Ravens season isn't over just yet. They hold the tiebreaker over two other teams for the second wild card in the AFC.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
