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GA Senate Runoff: Recent Polling vs. Betting Odds

Written by:
Associated Press
Published on:
Jan/05/2021

The BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School poll of Georgia likely voters finds Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler with nominal leads over Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively, ahead of the Senate runoff elections on January 5, 2021. Perdue and Loeffler both lead Ossoff and Warnock, respectively, by a 49%-48% margin among Georgia likely voters.

“With a record 3 million votes already cast, the Georgia Senate runoff will determine not only the representatives of the Peach State but the majority control of the US Senate,” said Jamie Loughead, of BUSR.

If both Ossoff and Warnock are victorious, then there will be a 50-50 composition within the Senate thus leaving Vice President Elect Kamala Harris in the position to break tiebreakers in legislative matters.

Per the 2020 Presidential Election, BUSR expects protracted legal challenges of the Georgia election results.

While Democrats traditionally vote by mail and Republicans in person on election day, BUSR also observes a not insignificant surge of new Democratic voters coming out and placing their votes in person.

Georgia Senate Runoff Odds Indicates Slight Edge to Republicans but Odds Are in Flux

While betting odds can drastically shift based on the volume of wagers placed on a particular candidate, BUSR calls attention to the converging percentage trend in contracts which began in late December as presented by PredictIt.

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PredictIt

David Perdue (R)

-130

-175

46%

Jon Ossoff (D)

-110

+125

54%

 

BUSR

Paddy Power

PredictIt

Raphael Warnock (D)

-120

-150

59%

Kelly Loeffler (R)

-120

+110

41%

This is also in line with the odds at BUSR and the results of the BUSR/UNLV poll data. “Whilst the Betfair and Paddy Power markets may seem like outliers, they still provide a helpful tool for overall analysis by the punter. Our odds are predicated and driven by polling data from several sources and we see the election as closer than our market competitors,” added Loughead.

The official BUSR/UNLV Georgia Senate poll is viewable at BUSR and will be available at most major aggregate polling websites, including FiveThirtyEight and 270towin.

2024 Presidential Elections Odds are likewise available at BUSR and continued polling data and analysis will be released by BUSR.

BUSR

BUSR is an award-winning, international gaming company with offices in the United Kingdom and the Americas.

In 2020, BUSR achieved a 96% Gold Medal performance by Zendesk and was a proud sponsor of Roc Nation Sport’s Tramaine Williams in his middleweight fight against Angelo Leo on Showtime Championship Boxing. BUSR provides odds and color commentary to various publications including ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Newsweek and the New York Times.

BUSR provides non-parimutuel wagering on horse racing for several hundred thoroughbred and harness racetracks around the world including the United Kingdom, United States, Australia and Japan.

Members of BUSR are able to wager on entertainment and politics as well as sports from around the world. A live dealer casino is available as well as over 350 table games and slot machines.

BUSR’s unique prop bets in sports, entertainment and politics have been featured by leading gaming websites worldwide.

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