GA Senate Runoff: Recent Polling vs. Betting Odds
The BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School poll of Georgia likely voters finds Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler with nominal leads over Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively, ahead of the Senate runoff elections on January 5, 2021. Perdue and Loeffler both lead Ossoff and Warnock, respectively, by a 49%-48% margin among Georgia likely voters.
“With a record 3 million votes already cast, the Georgia Senate runoff will determine not only the representatives of the Peach State but the majority control of the US Senate,” said Jamie Loughead, of BUSR.
If both Ossoff and Warnock are victorious, then there will be a 50-50 composition within the Senate thus leaving Vice President Elect Kamala Harris in the position to break tiebreakers in legislative matters.
Per the 2020 Presidential Election, BUSR expects protracted legal challenges of the Georgia election results.
While Democrats traditionally vote by mail and Republicans in person on election day, BUSR also observes a not insignificant surge of new Democratic voters coming out and placing their votes in person.
Georgia Senate Runoff Odds Indicates Slight Edge to Republicans but Odds Are in Flux
While betting odds can drastically shift based on the volume of wagers placed on a particular candidate, BUSR calls attention to the converging percentage trend in contracts which began in late December as presented by PredictIt.
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PredictIt
David Perdue (R)
-130
-175
46%
Jon Ossoff (D)
-110
+125
54%
BUSR
Paddy Power
PredictIt
Raphael Warnock (D)
-120
-150
59%
Kelly Loeffler (R)
-120
+110
41%
This is also in line with the odds at BUSR and the results of the BUSR/UNLV poll data. “Whilst the Betfair and Paddy Power markets may seem like outliers, they still provide a helpful tool for overall analysis by the punter. Our odds are predicated and driven by polling data from several sources and we see the election as closer than our market competitors,” added Loughead.
The official BUSR/UNLV Georgia Senate poll is viewable at BUSR and will be available at most major aggregate polling websites, including FiveThirtyEight and 270towin.
2024 Presidential Elections Odds are likewise available at BUSR and continued polling data and analysis will be released by BUSR.
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