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Associated Press Preakness Pick 2019: Bourbon War

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
May/18/2019

There won't be a Triple Crown this year after Kentucky Derby winner Country Home was pulled due to an illness. 

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The good news for bettors: This race is wide open.  More so than the Kentucky Derby.  It's any horse's race to win.

This race probably comes down to which jockey executes the best trip, according to the Associated Press.

And that would point us to Mike Smith.

Big Money Mike, as he's now called, takes his turn Saturday aboard Improbable — who'll have his fourth jockey in as many starts. Smith and seven-time Preakness winning trainer Bob Baffert are a lethal combination. Improbable will be bet down big-time, probably going off no better than 3-1, maybe even lower. There won't be any value there.

He's the safe play.

But is Improbable the best closer? Probably not. In this race, where plenty of horses are going to expend probably more energy than they should to get near the front early on, the right play is to go with the best finishing kick.

Bourbon War is that horse.

He wins over Improbable, Alwaysmining and Market King.

Bourbon War pays $80 for every $10 bet with a win.  The favorite, Improbable, pays $23 for every $10 bet.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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