April 4 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews (Listen)

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:

Here are some trends for late week series in Major League Baseball.


We managed a win on the Cubs-Braves OVER last night to bring our win total to 3-0.  We got this one at 8.5.  It had moved to 9.  Ultimately there were 10 runs scored.

And while we liked the UNDER in the Giants-Dodgers game, we didn't give into the temptation there by offering this as a PICK.  We gave the UNDER a 55% chance, and for some of you who got this one early at 8, this was a push.  Most of you got the 7 or 7.5 however. 

Yankees vs. Orioles

Trend Edge: OVER

Eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams have resulted in 8 or more runs scored.  One of those eight fell on eight.  The other seven were 9 or more runs scored.

60% of the action was on the OVER and the number is generally trending down from 8 to 7.5.  This total move turns us off when it comes to playing the OVER and we have no interest in going against such a solid trend.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH James Paxton (0-1, 1.59 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Alex Cobb (2018: 5-15, 4.90)

Paxton was sharp in his team debut Saturday against the Orioles but wound up on the wrong end of a 5-3 loss. The 30-year-old from British Columbia was charged with one earned run and four hits over 5 2/3 innings, leaving him 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore. Current Orioles have zero extra-base hits in 40 career at-bats against Paxton.

Cobb had a difficult first season in Baltimore in 2018, losing a career-high 15 games while seeing his ERA soar well over a run from the previous year. He was much better down the stretch, however, going 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in nine games (eight starts) from the beginning of August to the end of the season. The 31-year-old is 7-4 with a strong 2.90 ERA in his career versus New York, although catcher Gary Sanchez is 3-for-8 with a home run against him.

Red Sox vs. Athletics

Trend Edge: Athletics

Six of the last eight meetings were won by Oakland.

Action was balanced on Thursday's game.  The line wasn't moving and both sides were coming in at -104.

Boston is starting off the season 2-5, Oakland 5-4.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 10.38 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Brett Anderson (1-0, 0.00)

After a decent spring, Rodriguez struggled in his season debut as he surrendered six runs - five earned - on eight hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings at Seattle. The 25-year-old Venezuelan, who registered 13 victories last season, threw 105 pitches without getting through five frames. Rodriguez has made four career starts against Oakland, going 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA.

Anderson was superb in his season debut against the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday, scattering three hits over six scoreless innings. The 31-year-old Texan issued a pair of walks while registering four strikeouts en route to his 31st win as an Athletic while climbing within five games of .500 for his career (47-52). Anderson is 6-4 with a complete-game shutout and a 3.48 ERA in 11 career starts against Boston.

Blue Jays vs. Indians

Trend Edge: OVER

Eight of the last ten overall meetings have gone OVER 7.5 with one of those landing on 8, the rest in double digits.

The total is dropping from 7 to 6.5.  Because of this, it's difficult for us to take the OVER today as this type of movement suggests a 6 or UNDER.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.29 ERA)

Sanchez ran his pitch count up to 90 and was limited to five innings in his season debut Saturday, but he did not allow a run on three hits and three walks before leaving. The 26-year-old California native struggled with various injuries the last two years while making just 28 starts combined after his 15-2 breakout season in 2016. Jose Ramirez is 2-for-5 against Sanchez, who is 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Indians although he has not faced them since 2016.

Bauer was outstanding in his first start of the season last Saturday, permitting one run on one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk over seven innings without being involved in the decision. The 28-year-old UCLA product, who threw 108 pitches in his season debut, was 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts at home in 2018. Freddy Galvis is 1-for-2 with a homer and Justin Smoak is 3-for-9 with three RBIs versus Bauer, who is 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA in six career games (five starts) against Toronto.

2019 MLB Record: 3-0 (100%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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