April 13 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews (Podcast)

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

The Cleveland Indians were among the teams seeing the most early action in Major League Baseball Saturday.



Indians vs. Royals

What We Like:

  • The Indians line has dropped from -130 to -118 even though 70% or more of action on Cleveland
  • Those betting games featuring the Royals have mostly gotten tremendous value on the low-priced away favorite especially with the Mariners sweep

What We Don't Like:

  • KC beat Cleveland Friday following a string of consecutive losses
  • Homer Bailey likely to rebound for KC while Jefry Rodriguez will be making his first MLB start in 2019

The Mariners incredible value playing in Kansas City paid off, but not so with Cleveland Friday.  The Indians were priced higher at -154 but lost.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Jefry Rodriguez (2018: 3-3, 5.71 ERA) vs. Royals RH Homer Bailey (0-1, 9.00)

Rodriguez was acquired from Washington in November in the trade that sent catcher Yan Gomes to the Nationals. He made eight starts as a rookie with Washington last year and went 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in that role. The 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic, who has never faced the Royals, gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings in one start for Triple-A Columbus last weekend.

Bailey had a solid team debut on April 3 but took a step back Monday against the red-hot Seattle Mariners, giving up seven runs and eight hits -- three home runs -- in five innings. He did manage seven strikeouts and has 15 through 10 innings this season. The former first-round pick has a 5.79 ERA in nine career starts versus Cleveland.

Tigers vs. Twins

What We Like:

  • Three of the last four meetings have gone OVER this current total as have seven of the last ten
  • Both starting pitchers coming off wins

What We Don't Like:

  • Solid starting pitchers
  • The UNDER is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 road games.
  • 70 percent of the action is on the OVER and that number is moving from 7.5 to 8.5 in accordance with the action

Typically, we would prefer the number dropping, more action coming in on the OVER and then it might be time to go against the public and jump all over the UNDER.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Tyson Ross (1-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Twins RH Michael Pineda (1-0, 2.00)

Ross defeated Kansas City in his last turn as he allowed one run and five hits over seven innings. The native of California, who turns 32 on April 22, struck out eight batters and walked just one in the strong outing and has limited hitters to a .209 average through two starts. Ross is 0-3 with a 4.97 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Twins.

Pineda defeated Philadelphia last time out as he gave up two runs and four hits over five innings. The victory was the first for the 30-year-old Dominican since June 30, 2017, when he was a member of the New York Yankees. Pineda is 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts against Detroit and has struggled to retire Miguel Cabrera (6-for-10).

Rockies vs. Giants

What We Like:

  • The home team has won nine of the last ten meetings
  • San Francisco has won four of the last five in this series
  • Both starting pitchers coming off bad outings in their last two starts
  • Last five have fallen UNDER the current total of 7, all played in San Francisco
  • No move off the 7
  • Colorado on the road has not scored more than 2 points in their last five road games
  • Six of the Giants last ten games have resulted in 3 or fewer runs

What We Don't Like:

  • Better than 60% of action on Giants at -115 with the line having dropped from as high as -138
  • San Francisco has permitted six or more runs in Madison Bumgarner's two starts this season
  • Colorado allowed 8 runs in Kyle Freeland's last start

Though the betting action was 60/40 facing San Francisco, volume was insignficant enough that we could ride this one along with the public. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (1-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 3.32)

Freeland is coming off an outing to forget as he surrendered a career-high seven runs on seven hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Atlanta on Monday. The 25-year-old native of Denver has lost back-to-back starts after winning nine straight decisions dating back to last season. Freeland has had success against San Francisco in his career, going 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in eight turns.

Bumgarner also is in a funk as he has yielded five runs over six innings in each of his last two starts. The 29-year-old native of North Carolina, who is seeking his first win of 2019, escaped with a no-decision against San Diego on Monday but took the loss versus the Dodgers in Los Angeles six days earlier despite the fact all the runs were unearned. Bumgarner is 13-8 with two complete games, one shutout and a 3.04 ERA in 30 career turns versus Colorado.

We will be taking the UNDER 7 here

2019 MLB Record: 5-2 (71%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-4 (60%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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