2019 Sweet 16 Betting Tip: Look for Books to Have Opinions on One or Two Public Favorites

Written by:
Mary Montgomery
Published on:
  • Every favorite won in the Round of 32

  • Favorites mostly covered as well

  • Books will likely have a strong opinion on at least one of the Sweet 16 games and encourage lopsided action


With all the favorites winning in this past weekend's NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament Round of 32, a record has been shattered.  It's the first time this has happened since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.  Three times, in 2009, 1995 and 1991, the favored team had won 15 of 16 games in the round of 32, David Purdum of ESPN noted.

For the books this would appear on the surface to be bad news, and in fact it was.  Favorites winning doesn't necessarily spell a bad day for bookmakers.  They still need to cover the spread.  A quick look at the margins of victories for each game shows most of the favorites accomplished this feat.  And while Duke nearly lost and failed to cover their assigned spread, books had relatively balanced action on both the Blue Devils and UCF Knights.

So what to expect this week?

The books want their money back!

The way to achieve this is by encouraging action on a side they feel strongly wont' cover.

Heading into Thursday's play, we here at Gambling911.com were looking at Gonzaga at -7.5.  Books were moving the line on this game towards that number from -7 in an effort to get more action on FSU.  The problem is that nearly 80% of the early action was already on the Noles.  Now be careful, the number could still trend more towards -7 or even -6.5.  We would also be remiss in not pointing out that Sagarin indicates the line should be no more than -6 on this game.  Other variables may be giving bookmakers an inclination that the Zags could win by more than 8.

There could be more, so stay tuned.

So far in this tournament, Gambling911.com has opted to make only one pick.  We were on the underdog Baylor in the first round versus Syracuse.  This was among the biggest wins for books.  It was one of the few obvious opinions.

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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