2019 AFC Championship Game Picks – New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs rode the strong arm of their brilliant young quarterback to the best record in the AFC and just the second conference championship game in franchise history.
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They have to subdue the wily veteran to appear in the Super Bowl for the first time since before the league’s merged some 50 years ago. This is Tom Brady’s stage as he leads the Pats into their eighth straight AFC Championship, but they have to prove they can win on the road in order to reach the Super Bowl for a third consecutive season.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, January 20, 2019, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
Opening NFL Odds: Chiefs -3, O/U 58.5
Patriots at Chiefs TV Coverage: CBS
Live Betting Odds Analysis
If there is one team that won’t be unnerved playing in a hostile environment it would have to be the Pats, who have reached unconscionable heights with Brady leading the way. One thing they haven’t faced in a few years is being an underdog in a playoff game and they opened this game getting 3-points on the NFL betting line.
It’s hard to overlook New England’s road woes this season. They went just 3-5 SU and ATS away from Foxboro with all five losses to teams that failed to reach the playoffs. The Pats have also lost three straight road playoff games, so again they have to prove they can win on the road.
At least for one week the Chiefs put their disappointing playoff performances in the rear-view mirror. A solid win over the Colts in the Divisional Round stopped a six-game home playoff losing streak and brought the championship game to KC for the first time. It’s still a history that doesn’t compare to that of the Pats, but no team’s history does.
The Chiefs busted their hump to get the No. 1 seed and now that they have it they need to do something with it. And playing at Arrowhead has been a good thing this season. They went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS during the regular season and easily covered the 4-point line in their win over Indy.
Last Meeting
New England’s unbeaten home record included a 43-40 victory over the Chiefs in Week 6 in which KC suffered its first loss. This was more than just a regular season game in October, however. At the time there was talk that the teams were the best in the AFC and that proved true, because here we are. It was also a battle of the quarterbacks, which Brady won by the slimmest of margins.
Facing the biggest test of his young career against the defending AFC champs on the road, Patrick Mahomes stubbed his toe in the first half. But he responded like a champion in the second half and nearly got the Chiefs a victory. Only the magic of Brady prevented it. Mahomes threw two picks and KC trailed 24-9 at the break. He was brilliant over the final two quarters tossing four touchdown passes and briefly moved the Chiefs in front with a strike to Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes connected with Hill again to tie the game with just over three minutes remaining. But there was too much time left on the clock and Brady moved the Pats into field goal range with Stephen Gostkowski nailing a 28-yarder as time expired. Mahomes finished the game with 352 passing yards and Brady went for 340 in a game that featured little defense.
Key Stat
Is the over high enough? Based on the first meeting the answer would be no. But taking a closer look at some of the numbers might suggest otherwise. The Pats scored exactly 10 points in three of their road games and averaged just over 21 points per game away from home. The Cardinals would enjoy having that number, but this is the Pats and Brady, and they should be better. That figure was over 12 points per game lower than what they averaged at home, the second largest disparity in the NFL.
And don’t sleep on the Chiefs after what they did to Andrew Luck and the Colts last week. The 31st ranked pass defense during the regular year allowed Luck just 206 passing yards and the Colts amassed only 263 total against a KC defense that has been surprisingly good at home. Including the Indy game, the Chiefs are allowing just 17.4 points per game and they will give Brady a hard time.
Betting New England at Kansas City at BookMaker.eu
A severe weather event is forecast and the arctic blast could impact the way the teams operate on offense. Both showed off powerful ground games last week with New England’s Sony Michel putting on a show. The Chiefs have found their guy in Damien Williams and you can expect to more rush attempts than we normally would. That means a quiet first quarter on the live betting lines at BookMaker.eu until things thaw out. It’s hard to bet against the Pats, but their road struggles are hard to overlook and I like Mahomes to continue his magical season.
AFC Championship ATS Betting Pick: Kansas City -3 at BookMaker.eu
AFC Championship Score Prediction: Chiefs 26, Patriots 21
