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As we enter Week 6 of the 2022 College Football season, wrong teams favored have only covered five times out of 14 in games analyzed by Gambling911.com.
We should note that this is only a sample size of key games and we do not review matchups where the line is within a range of PICK'EM to 2. This week's betting lines available at BetAdrian here.
The Dog Covers
In the following cases, the underdog should actually have been the favorite. Typically these games by default featured significant overlays of 2.5 or greater.
Iowa State +3.5 to +4 Iowa (road dog Iowa State covers and wins by 3) Iowa State - 1.71 Wrong Team Favored 5 to 6 point overlay
Marshall -3 to -3.5 (-2.5 very early in the week) Troy (home dog Troy covers and wins) Troy 0.06 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay of 3 to 3.5
Mississippi State -2.5 LSU (Dog LSU Covers wins big) LSU 4.96 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 7
North Dakota State -2.5 Arizona (Dog Arizona Covers and Wins by 3) Arizona 1.15 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 3.5
Baylor +2.5 Iowa State (dog Baylor wins outright) Baylor 1.58 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 4 points
Notre Dame +2.5 to +1.5 to +2.5 North Carolina (Notre Dame dog covers and wins) Notre Dame 9.3 Wrong Team Favored - 11.5 Overlay
UAB -5.5 / -6 / -6.5 Liberty (Dog Liberty covers and wins outright) Liberty 0.66 Wrong Team Favored and Overlay of 6 to 7.
Northern Illinois +5.5 - +6.5 Tulsa (Dog Northern Illinois covers in a 3-point loss) 8.42 Underlay of 2 to 3
Kentucky +5.5 / +6 Florida (Dog Kentucky covers and wins outright) Kentucky 4.91 wrong team favored. Overlay 10 to 11 (the power ratings for both teams likely dramatically changed going into Week 4)
The Favorite Covers
Baylor +2.5 / +3.5 BYU (Favorite BYU wins by 6) Baylor 2.28 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay 5 to 6
Texas San Antonio -2 to -2.5 (-3 for a few hours Thursday at a few books) Army (favorite covers with a 3-point win) Army 1.77 - Wrong team favored, Overlay 4 points
Vanderbilt +2.5 Northern Illinois (Favorite Van covers and wins by 10) - Vanderbilt 1.26 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 4
Cincinnati +6.5 to +7 Arkansas (home favorite covers just barely with 7 point win, also push for some) Cin 0.46 Wrong Team Favored - Seven Point Overlay
Key Findings
- Of the four "wrong" favorites that covered, only one was on the road.
- Of the four games where the line was hovering around the number 6, only one had the wrong team favored cover (Arkansas), and that was just barely.
- The away teams that were wrongly favored went 1-4 ATS.
- Two of the four "wrong" favorites that did cover did so by a mere half point or pushed at some books (Texas San Antonio and Arkansas).
- None of the 14 games in this category featured a line trending downward (those that did saw the line bounce back up again).
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
