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Carrie Stroup here with your UFC on FX2 betting odds courtesy of our good friends at Sportsbook.com
Sportsbook.com Line: Alves -125, Kampmann -105
Australia will play home to just its third UFC fight card, headlined by a strong battle between two elite welterweights, Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann.
With the odds essentially even, betting on this fight comes down to who should win. Both fighters are talented UFC veterans who have had mixed results as of late, fighting against the top members of their class. Alves has lost three out of his past five bouts, while Kampmann has fallen in two of his past three fights. At 6-foot-0, however, Kampmann holds three inches over his foe, something that could end up being a critical factor in this matchup that should be fought mostly standing up. Kampmann’s kickboxing should ultimately give him the victory, as should his strong defensive rates. Alves will not be able to end this fight early as Kampmann avoids 80% of takedown attempts.
Kampmann’s attack is submission-heavy (55%) but he also brings knockout power to the table. Still, it will be tough to register a submission against Alves who has not lost that way since 2005 – this is a fight that should last until the final bell. In a battle fought standing up, his height advantage should loom large in this one. His recent win over Rick Story is a major factor in deciding to play on him, as Story is Alves’ most recent loss.
Alves’ recent submission over Papy Abedi was big for him, but it does not excuse some of his recent defeats. Falling to Story was a major disappointment, where he was seemingly unable to generate any momentum. With a Muay Thai, wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu background, the Brazilian is an extremely strong striker (57%).
Demetrious Johnson (14-2-0) vs. Ian McCall (11-2-0)
Sportsbook.com Line: Johnson -325, McCall +250
Two Americans will take the Octagon in Australia for UFC’s first flyweight bout when Demetrious Johnson and Ian McCall face off on the main card for UFC on FX2.
Johnson enters this bout as a heavy favorite, coming off a loss to Dominick Cruz in October for the UFC bantamweight belt. Although Johnson cedes two inches in height at 5-foot-5, his reach is two inches longer than Cruz’s at 66 inches. Johnson has beaten top fighters throughout his career, most recently prevailing over Miguel Torres in a unanimous decision before his decision loss to Cruz. While McCall is coming off four consecutive wins, they are against fighters in a class far below Johnson’s. This is McCall’s first UFC bout, and he has yet to see a player at this size who can wrestle like Johnson can. Both are strong strikers, but Johnson’s speed with takedowns should prove to be the difference in this bout against an opponent who has yet to beat the best.
Johnson enters this bout a winner in four of his past five fights. Johnson is an extremely good wrestler for his small frame, making the best use of his long arms to take fights to the ground. His quickness is as good as any for this weight class, and that combination of speed and power is something McCall has never seen fighting on lower profile circuits. Six of Johnson’s 14 career wins have come as submissions – he has a good chance to do that against the ill-prepared McCall.
McCall has won four in a row, with his loss before that coming to Dominick Cruz. McCall fights quickly, mixing in both takedowns and strikes from the start of the fight. To be competitive in this fight he will have to set the pace, preventing Johnson from controlling the bout with his wrestling. If he can do that, McCall will have a shot as an underdog.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
