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Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle spots an opportunity in the 2008 NFL Week 13 lines. Here are his free NFL picks.
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One of the best ways to make your bets is to spot lines where the public perception of a team remains higher or lower than the team's actual worth on the field, as conclusively proven by its results. And this seems to be case at Qualcomm on Sunday, where San Diego is a five point favorite against Atlanta. The public perception remains that San Diego is a quality team and that Atlanta is still in a post Michael Vick mess; the reality is that the Chargers have lost their spark and can't defend, whereas Atlanta has caught a wave and the Falcons are riding it for all they're worth.
Philip Rivers can and has punished teams with the pass, but the reduced efficiency of LaDainian Tomlinson means that the Chargers struggle to balance the run and the pass, thus keeping defenses honest. Atlanta, on the other hand, have a beautifully balanced attack with Michael "The Burner" Tuner in the backfield and a rookie of the year candidate at quarterback in Matt Ryan. Five points is really good value with the Falcons - Atlanta +5 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Elsewhere, I also like Denver to cover at the Jets. There's a huge lack of public faith in the Broncos after they got beaten by Oakland, because being beaten by the current Raiders is humiliating in anybody's eyes, but I can't help feeling that the Jets are due a letdown after some huge wins. They know that Denver lost to Oakland too, you know. Denver +8.5 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Finally, Brady Quinn's broken finger suggests to me that the end of Romeo Crennel era is at hand by the banks of the Ohio. It's very sad, really - things nearly took off for him but they never quite clicked. They're unlikely to click on Sunday either when the rejuvenated Colts arrive in Cleveland. Whatever was wrong with Peyton Manning at the start of the season is all in the past and he looks as good as ever. Indianapolis -5 with Sports Interaction is the final pick of the week.
Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com
