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The Patriots-Packers betting line had Green Bay as a firm -3 home favorite. As good as New England has been this season, it will be the 5th time they are entering a game as an underdog. Previously they have gone 4-0 both Straight Up and Against The Spread as a dog during the 2014 regular season.
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Gambling911.com will be on Green Bay -3 as we like the fact that around 75% of the action is coming in on the Patriots. Nevertheless, this is a relatively small play compared to others we have offered up. Gambling911.com is 12-3 with its free picks since Week 7.
New England has only lost two games this season while Green Bay have lost only three. The Pats have won seven straight while Green Bay is 7-1 in their last eight games.
The Patriots are 4-0 Against The Spread in their last 4 games following a S.U. win, 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record but are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on grass.
The Packers are 5-0-1 Against The Spread in their last 6 home games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
The Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers fantasy matchup does favor the Green Bay starting quarterback. Rodgers leads all signal-callers in points per game since Week 2 (23.9) and will be going up against a Patriots squad that has permitted the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs over the past six weeks.
At home, Rodgers is 8-1 with 26 touchdowns to zero picks since the start of 2013.
With multiple TD passes and 250-plus yards in seven straight contests this year, Brady should still do well here.
New England wide receiver Julius Edelman certainly has value this day as Green Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (28) to opposing receiving corps since Week 7.
The Packers Jordy Nelson, meanwhile, will have his hands full against a capable New England secondary allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points.
Green Bay’s Randal Cobb ranks 10th in fantasy points per game among wideouts on the season but will also have to deal with the Patriots daunting secondary.
Is this the Game of the Year? You decide.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
