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Polymarket opened an interesting betting market Saturday evening in the wake of the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The question: Will the shooter be a Democrat or a Republican?
Remarkably, the gambling public was giving Democrat a 19% chance or +426 odds following a press conference held by the FBI and police in Pennsylvania. Initially, this betting market opened at 75% Democrat.
The FBI said they did not have a motive at this time. Law enforcement has tentatively identified the now deceased shooter and potentially his residence. There was no ID on his person. Police are attempting to confirm the shooter's identity through DNA.
Shortly before Midnight Saturday, the New York Post was reporting the shooter's identity as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks. Sources said Crooks was planted on a roof of a manufacturing plant more than 130 yards away from the stage at Butler Farm Show grounds.
BetOnline, meanwhile, has moved Trump's odds up from -180 to -300 during the evening hours Saturday immediately following the incident. The long established gambling site had pulled the odds right after Trump was shot.
How This Market Will Resolve
Polymarket does not take bets from U.S. residents.
This market will resolve to "Democrat" if the shooter at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, is confirmed to have been a registered Democrat, affiliated with left-wing groups such as Antifa, or had a public record of supporting liberal political causes.
The market will resolve to "Republican" if the shooter is confirmed to have been a registered Republican, affiliated with right-wing groups, or had a public record of supporting conservative political causes, such as consistent support for Donald Trump.
The resolution will be based on the shooter’s most recent political affiliations and activity.
This market will resolve once there is definitive evidence of the shooter's political affiliations. If there has been no relevant information by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET then this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market is official information from law enforcement agencies including the secret service and a consensus of credible reporting.
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