Biden Won't Be on Ohio Election Ballot Betting Odds

In past election cycles, the Buckeye State would tend to be considered a swing state much the same as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are today.  In more recent general elections, Ohio has gone reliably red in favor of the Republican.  Now there is a chance the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, will not be appearing on the ballot in that state.

National Biden and former president Donald Trump remain in a dead heat at -110 at BetOnline.

A betting market opened on Wednesday regarding Biden's name not appearing on the Ohio Ballot.  The chances of the current president being on the ballot were still very high according to the betting public: 92% or -1150. 

Here is the issue: Current law states that Ohio officials must certify the ballot on Aug. 7, 90 days before the election, but Biden won't be nominated until the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19.

The Ohio House and Senate each had separate proposals to fix the deadline issue but neither advanced when the legislature was last in session on May 8.

"The Biden issue is – it's a hyper-political environment at this time of year," said Speaker Jason Stephens, R-Kitts Hill. "And there were some Republicans who just didn't want to vote on it, and there were some who were (willing)," Stephens said, "I think there are other alternatives to do it so why create a stir unnecessarily?"

Biden campaign spokesperson Charles Lutvak said Biden will be on the ballot in all 50 states.

"Election after election, states across the country have acted in line with the bipartisan consensus and taken the necessary steps to ensure the presidential nominees from both parties will be on the ballot," Lutvak said. "And this election is no different — Alabama, with full Republican support, and Washington state are already taking action to ensure that voters can exercise their right to vote for the candidate of their choice in November.”

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose on Tuesday posted on X that he sent a letter to Ohio Democratic Party leaders.

"As it stands today, the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee will not be on the Ohio ballot. That is not my choice. It’s due to a conflict in the law created by the party, and the party has so far offered no legally acceptable remedy," LaRose said in the post.

Polymarket's rules for this betting market and how it will get resolved:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if US President Joseph Biden appears on the ballot in Ohio for the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is definitively decided that Biden will be on the ballot in Ohio for the 2024 US presidential election, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Ohio and other US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Polymarket does not accept bets from those in the U.S.