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NFL Week 10 nuggets are:
- Favorites going 14-1 straight up. The only favorite that lost was the Saints which helped lead to Dennis Allen’s firing.
- Dennis Allen had the worst ATS (against the spread) record as a favorite for any coach in the last 20 years.
- Rookie QBS are 11-0 ATS when listed as a favorite this year.
- Road favorites are having their best run ATS in the last 20 years.
- Jim Harbaugh coached teams consistently playing good defense and going under the points total.
Week 10 Trends/Stats/Notes
In Week 9, favorites went 14-1 straight up, with just the Saints and Dennis Allen losing outright. New Orleans subsequently fired Allen ahead of Week 10, which leads to many different spots this week.
Chalk Back
NFL favorites finished 14-1 straight up in Week 9. This is just the third week over the last 15 years when favorites won 14+ games SU with just one loss.
In Week 9, favorites were 10-5 ATS, while they are 46-27-1 ATS (63%) over the last five weeks.
Rookie Leap
Through nine weeks, Rookie QBs are 17-16 SU and 20-12-1 ATS. Last year, rookie QBs went 34-36-2 ATS over the full season.
This year, rookie QBs are 11-0 ATS when listed as a favorite and 9-12-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
In his early career, Jayden Daniels is 7-1-1 ATS through nine starts, including 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. He’s the first QB to start his career 5-0 ATS as a favorite since 2000.
Cover City
One of the best cover runs of all-time continues. The Lions are now 40-15 ATS (72.7%) over their last 55 games since the middle of the 2021 season.
Talk about coming through for your bettors. Goff is 4-0 ATS this season as the public side. He’s 14-2 ATS last two seasons and 21-4 ATS last three years when listed as the public side.
Road Domination
Favorites away from home – road or neutral – are 33-18-2 ATS this season, the best season through nine weeks in the last 20 years. In fact, only one other year in that span even finished a season more than 3 games above .500 ATS in this spot. Since Week 5, road favorites are 24-9 ATS.
Overall, road teams are 74-57-3 ATS (57%) this season — which would be the 2nd-highest ATS win pct for road teams over a full season in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Dennis The Menace
Dennis Allen's 9-18-1 record ATS in his career as a favorite is the worst mark of any head coach in the last 30 years.
Allen has coached five seasons in the NFL — his teams are 0-5 to their preseason win total over & on their way to 0-6.
2-0 under w/ Saints (2022-23)
3-0 under w/ Raiders (2012-14)
39 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-22 straight up (SU) and 22-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing.
Those teams had a 102-263-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 135-227-5 ATS (37.3%) record prior to the coaching change.
Caution Ahead
Passing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yds or fewer are 61-56-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.
Plugged In
Chargers are 7-1 to the under in the full-game total this season, going under the total by 7.7 PPG. Since the start of last season, the under is 19-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 28-14-1 in games he coaches with the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 17-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 17-2 to the under in his last 19 starts.
Up, Up and Away
We have a high TNF total this week. Totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003. We haven’t had a total close 53 or higher on TNF since 2021 – Chargers vs. Chiefs, closed at 54.
Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog of 3 pts or more 19 times in his career. He is 9-9-1 SU and 16-3 ATS. Last 20 years, Burrow is the 3rd-most profitable QB ATS in this spot behind Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater.
