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It's Manifold Markets vs. the World.
Monday evening that free play prediction market touched on the news that real money competitor Polymarket had just acquired the cryptocurrency exchange QCX.
Polymarket is acquiring derivatives exchange “QCX,” a derivatives exchange that recently received a CFTC license to legally provide prediction markets to American consumers. The value of such a license would have made for an interesting market, if only someone had had the foresight to make one in advance of the deal. It appears that the true value is north of $100 million, as QCX sold for $112 million, a week after Polymarket had received word that the DOJ and CFTC were no longer pursuing investigations against the company.
These licenses to operate as a DCM (Designated Contract Market) are hard to come by, with only a handful granted over the last decade. Railbird received a license in June, and look like they intend to launch a prediction market platform. I wasn’t able to find any information about Quanta Exchange or their plans, but they received a license in May. Forecast Exchange, which lists Robinhood on its website as a broker offering its forecast contracts, received a license in 2024, along with IMX Health which appears to be targeting customers looking to “hedge the healthcare economy.” Before then, you have to go back to the end of the first Trump administration to find the last license that was granted.
Manifold predicts that Polymarket has a 50/50 shot at accessing the US gambling market. Polymarket does not currently take bets from those in the US.
By 2026, Manifold suggests those odds will increase to 80 percent.
Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, has already announced his company’s excitement to return to American consumers to compete directly with Kalshi.
Of course, operating real money markets on your own operations not only has the potential to elicit regulatory suspicion, but also might incur some questionable hedging motivations from traders. And markets specifically about prediction market regulations is far from the only domain that real money markets are hesitant to create markets about. Markets on conflicts, death, and other heavy topics come with warnings…
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
