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The Steelers-Browns line had dropped to -5 at a small percentages of online sportsbooks after opening at -6 earlier in the week. 85 percent of the spread action was on the Steelers. 80 percent of the money line betting action was on Pittsburgh. 37.5 was the total and by far the lowest number in any game. Needless-to-say, we were seeing close to 75 percent of the bets coming in on the OVER.
Why This Game Is Important: With a win, the Steelers become the AFC North Division champs and will get a first-week bye in the Playoffs and maintain home field advantage throughout. Pittsburgh owns the tie-breaker in this series as a result of their better record in the division. They currently lead the division with Baltimore.
Pittsburgh Has Won By More Than The Current Spread 6 of 10 Times: In this series, the Steelers have covered the current spread of -5 six of the last 10 head-to-head matchups in this series. While they have won 9 of the last 10 outright, Cleveland has won Against The Spread in 4 of the last 6. Three of those games had the Browns as double digit underdogs. We should note that Pittsburgh has beaten Cleveland by more than the current 5-point spread in 3 of their last 4 meetings.
Why The Browns Can Still Cover But Probably Won’t: Cleveland is 14-5-1 Against The Spread in their last 20 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Overall, however, they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. They have played well Against The Spread during the final week, going 6-2 ATS. The Browns are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
We should note that the Steelers are not performing well vs. teams with losing records like Cleveland. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
