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Carrie Stroup here with your spread on the Oregon vs. Stanford game Saturday. Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -10, Total: 69.6
OREGON DUCKS (6-3) at STANFORD CARDINAL (8-1)
The 7th-ranked Stanford Cardinal will strive to keep their playoff hopes alive on Saturday night as they host their Pac-12 rivals the Oregon Ducks.
Oregon (6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS) comes into this Saturday’s game hot on the heels of a decisive 44-28 victory over California that saw the Ducks generate a school record 777 yards of total offense. Stanford (8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS), meanwhile, has ripped off eight straight wins after dropping the season opener at unranked Northwestern, most recently dominating Colorado on the road 42-10 last week.
The Cardinal are big favorites this Saturday in a matchup whose winner has gone on to clinch the Pac-12 conference title in each of the past five seasons. Oregon has held a slight 12-9 SU (13-8 ATS) advantage over Stanford since 1992, while the teams have split wins (SU and ATS) the past two seasons. In their meeting last year, the Ducks easily dispatched the Cardinal 45-16, in a game where QB Marcus Mariota threw for 258 yards and 2 TD and ran for 85 yards and another two scores.
While Stanford no longer needs to fear Mariota, there are several trends pointing in Oregon’s favor to beat the spread. The Ducks are 40-17 ATS against good passing teams (averaging 8+ yards per passing attempt) since 1992, and are 11-0 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games over the past two seasons.
Bettors looking to place their faith with the Cardinal will note that the team is 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive Unders over the past three seasons, and 30-10 ATS after scoring 42+ points in their last game since 1992.
Oregon is still smarting from the loss of WR Byron Marshall, last season’s receiving leader, who was lost for the season with an ankle injury in September. In addition, S Juwaan Williams (foot) and LB Christian French (arm) are questionable to play Saturday. Stanford is mostly healthy, but will be closely watching WR Devon Cajuste, who suffered a head injury in last week’s game and is listed as questionable.
Per usual, Oregon has been an offensive machine this season, putting up 42.2 PPG (9th in FBS) and 543.6 YPG (8th in nation). QB Vernon Adams is finding his groove after struggling with a broken finger he suffered in the season opener against his old school Eastern Washington. In his past three games, Adams is averaging 296 passing YPG and has thrown for 10 TD and only three interceptions.
The Ducks’ ground game has been the heart of the team’s offense this season. Led by RB Royce Freeman, the team averages 305 YPG on the ground (5th in FBS) and has amassed 23 touchdowns. In last week’s victory against Cal, Freeman ran for 180 yards on 29 carries, complemented by RBs Kani Benoit (94 yards on 8 carries), Taj Griffin (59 yards on 8 carries), and Tony Brooks-James (101 yards on 7 carries). Amazingly, the team scored only one rushing touchdown in that game, courtesy of Adams.
As dynamic as Oregon’s offense has been, its defense leaves much to be desired. The team surrenders 37.2 PPG (116th in FBS) and 490 YPG (118th in FBS) this year, and has been stranded on the field for an average of 33:21 a game.
Stanford’s success this season can be attributed to more balanced play on both sides of the ball. The team is no slouch offensively, scoring 37.1 PPG (21st in FBS) and generating 441 total YPG of offense (40th in FBS).
The Cardinal rushing game is especially strong, good for 228 YPG (15th in FBS) largely on the strength of RB Christian McCaffrey’s 1,207 yards on 198 attempts (6.1 YPC) and six touchdowns. McCaffrey leads the FBS in all-purpose yards per game (241.6) and shined in the team’s win against Colorado last week, rushing for 147 yards on 23 attempts, catching three passes for 15 yards, and throwing in a 28-yard TD pass for good measure.
Stanford’s offense, helmed by QB Kevin Hogan, has done a masterful job of controlling game flow this season by holding onto the ball for 35:13 per game.
The Cardinal's Pac-12 leading defense benefits from this, seeing the field just 24:47 per game (23:15 at home) and limiting opponents to 20.2 PPG (30th in FBS). Stanford has been particularly stingy against the run at home, giving up only 110 YPG, which should make for an interesting matchup Saturday against its run-happy opponent.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
